The middle classes in Asia and Africa are growing. As, with continued automation, urbanisation will also continue in the coming decades. In total, Fruit Logistica has signalled 30 mega-trends in society that could decide the future of the sector. In a recent report, the fair’s organisation looked toward 2030. If the report comes true, the market will look completely different in twelve years.
The good news is that it’s expected there will be significant growth in the consumption of fruit and vegetables globally. This increasing demand is mostly thanks to an ever-increasing global population and higher spending on these products. Because consumers will have to make more decisions about nutritional values, among other things, more money will be spent on fruit and vegetables. This growth, however, will also be challenging for the sector. Not every market will grow at the same speed, and even within markets, differences will be visible due to, for example, different incomes.
Asia and Oceania increasingly important
In the geographic spread of these spendings, the dominance of Asia and Oceania in particular stand out. While in 2015 46 per cent of global spending on fruit and vegetables was spent in this region, this will have increased to 56 per cent by 2030. This rapid growth is in contrast to the slower growth or stagnation in Western countries. In 2030, the countries in the regions Asia, Oceania, the Middle East and Africa combined will amount for nearly 70 per cent of the market. Within these regions, large differences will be discernible in spending. Thanks to the quick growth of the GNP in Asia, demand for healthy food will quickly increase. That trend could already be seen in recent years, the growing middle class increasingly replaced basic products such as rice with fruit and vegetables.
Besides, much growth is expected in regions that are less accessible. One example are the mega cities in Africa. A major growth is expected for these cities, but right now, two-thirds of the population has no direct access to fresh food. In absolute figures, the markets in North America and Europe also continue to grow, although relatively speaking, the importance of these markets is decreasing. That’s the consequence of a lower growth figure and less significant changes in dietary patterns.
More online and out-of-home
The way in which money is spent is also changing. In recent decades, the out-of-home segment grew most, but that growth is expected to start levelling off. In 2015, 31 per cent of spending was made in this category. In 2030, that will be 32 per cent. In absolute figures, this amount is increasing, but other segments have seen their relative share growing quicker. Yet there’s also positive news. In 2030, fruit and vegetables will play a more prominent role in the out-of-home segment. North America will probably remain a strong basis for this segment. It’s not just the region with the largest market share, the market is well-developed as well, and has a broad network of developed supply chains.
Online sales are a major growth category. This market share was limited with just one per cent in 2015, but in 2030, seven per cent of spending will occur online. The online sales of food, and particularly of fruit and vegetables, currently still have a limited market share. However, geographic differences can be seen, which is the result of a diverse sentiment among consumers and the profitability of retailers.
The potential of this market is large, although it’s not expected online will rise rapidly for fruit and vegetables in the near future. With parties such as Amazon and Ocado entering these new markets, local retailers are forced to respond.
The researchers expect that the online market for fruit and vegetables will have a share of seven per cent by 2030. Europe and Asia will take the lead in this. America will follow at a respectful distance. The most important factors for growth are decreasing delivery costs and more competition. “Increasing automation and logistical improvement will lead to an efficient delivery, while consumers will probably be more prepared to make online purchases thanks to the innovation in the final kilometre and more appealing online models,” the researchers conclude.