Nobody is really clear about the consequences that the Brexit will have. Firstly, because the terms of this exit are just beginning to be negotiated, and secondly because the very nature of this process (the new way in which the United Kingdom will relate to the rest of the World), makes it almost impossible to predict the changes to come.
Notwithstanding the above and as regards Chilean fruit exports, we can draw some conclusions from certain facts.
In terms of volume, fresh fruit shipments grew by 8.2% between January and April of this year, compared to the same period of the previous years, which occured prior to the referendum that approved the Brexit. In terms of value, fresh fruit exports amounted to £ 106.1 million, i.e. 17.5% more than the £ 90.3 million achieved in the same period of 2016.
However, when doing the same analysis in dollars, we will see that these exports reached US $ 132.1 million in 2017, i.e. only 2.1% more than the US $ 129.3 million obtained in 2016 because of the depreciation of the pound, which had the immediate effect of increasing the value of what the United Kingdom imported, which not only affected fruit imports but also all trade.
Currently, the main products that Chile exports to the UK include fresh blueberries, which continue to show a very positive evolution in volume, as they increased by 11.3% until April 2017, reaching shipments of 9.6 million kilograms. In pounds, the increase achieved was 23.3% over the January-April 2016 period, totaling £ 44 million. This partly reflects the increase in prices recently seen in the country, which has given room to negotiate and sell higher volumes at higher average prices. Obviously the situation in dollars is less positive, but there still was a significant increase of 7.2%, as exports amounted to US $ 54.7 million in the same period.
On the other hand, as a result of the Brexit and the consequent depreciation of the Pound, the UK has started to show signs of a growing inflation, reaching levels close to 3% in recent quarters, after remaining at close to 0% for a long time. It is important to monitor the country's inflation, as it could lead to a reduction in the consumption of fresh fruit.
In spite of all these aspects, we still can't really know the consequences that the Brexit will have on our economy and in our shipments of fresh fruit. Following the United Kingdom's notification to the EU of its departure, invoking Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon, a two-year process of negotiations began to specify the conditions of this exodus. Until such an exit is implemented, the trade relationship between Chile and the United Kingdom will continue under the terms contemplated in the commercial pillar of the Chilean Association Agreement with the European Union.
In this context, Chile hopes to work together with the United Kingdom to establish a new mechanism to regulate trade between the two countries and to build on what has already been achieved within the framework of the European Union.
Source: simfruit.cl