“Will the Chinese grow their own Conference in future?”

He is a well-known China expert, but is interested in other countries too. During an event for the Belgian fresh produce trade, Flemish Jonathan Holslag went deeper into the political uncertainty and how that influences the market. Various topics were discussed for this, including power shifts, trade shifts, Trump, Brexit, protectionism, unrest, Russia, China and other emerging economies. Jonathan gave a sharp but realistic picture of the things we need to keep in mind in the coming years. “I’m not a doom-monger, but the coming years aren’t looking positive, for we are living in a turbulent, nervous, protectionist and hostile world. There are solutions, but I see an inability to bring these into practice.”

“The world has reached an important crossroads. We managed to avert a recession, the crisis went down, but the underlying problems haven’t been resolved. We aren’t out of the woods yet, the Eurozone remains incredibly vulnerable,” he said. “It’ll result in new shock effects in any case.” Jonathan gave various explanations for today’s uncertainty. For example, he mentioned the turning of the global power balance as number one. “The West is losing power to emerging countries such as China and India.” The spending power rose in Europe. “But not by much since 2008. Besides, 3.2 million people less are working in the Eurozone, compared to 2009.” Europe’s role is becoming smaller in many fields. “The influence of trade and competition has been decreasing ever since China and India started increasing in power. Another point that affects trade is the military weakening. And it's just a fact that you do not really count in discussions when you’re a military ‘dwarf.’”

According to him, economists are still happy with the growing economy. “They think it’ll be all right. But there are also less positive results. The impact of the growth in container trade, for example, is invisible to consumers. Positive evolutions of a growing economy are disappointing in everyday lives. We have to see the bigger picture, and not just be fixated on GDP. In Europe, nearly everyone has debts. The cake is growing, but the specific weight is decreasing.”

Another problem that’ll emerge in coming years is scarcity. “In certain parts of the world, hunger is a pressing issue, and the number of dead is increasing. We have the knowledge to do something about this, but the implementation is much too slow.”

The humanity crisis was also mentioned by Holslag. “GDP may be high, but the number of depressions and suicides is rising. How will the well-being of European people develop? Frustrated young people are increasingly radicalising. Such young people are being taken by nationalist or populist politicians, and they’ll also vote for those types of parties. The groups that vote for those parties are often misguided young people and lonely elderly people.”

“Chinese agricultural companies are actually vehicles subsidised by the state that make China independent from foreign players. These companies are supposed to increase domestic market share. In China, they are called ‘national agricultural champions.’ In emerging economies, such as India and China, economic safety is very important. The government is focusing on economic nationalism. China is putting much money aside for the promotion of their own products, about 42 billion dollar to strengthen the market. In Belgium, we think as a country, but they think as a state. In employment in agriculture, too much is being inverted. When we shape the agricultural politics in Europe and Flanders, it’s much less so from national interests. More and more emerging countries fall back on protectionism and that is a very big threat to us.” He anticipates a ‘clash’ between China and the US. “This is very probable if China continues to grow, this won’t remain peaceful.”

The relationship between Europe and China isn’t very stable. “Russia plays an important part in that. They want to play China off against Europe. Regarding Russia, things are still looking bleak as well. Tensions continue to rise, they aren’t afraid of anything. The same is true for Turkey, and the entire Middle East as well, actually.” In Africa and South Asia there’s regime instability. “Africa has much potential for the fresh products, but we have to bear in mind that many of the countries on this continent aren’t stable. India in South Asia is another of these examples. It appears to be a success story for pears at the moment, but will that remain the case? The population continues to grow sharply, but hardly any jobs are created.”

“My analysis of the world is that it will become ‘regular’ again. What we experienced after the fall of the Berlin wall wasn’t normal. A period of peace and prosperity and predictability. The US was the strongest power by far, and no one could touch us. That period of prosperity is far behind us now, I think. What we are seeing now is a normal world of power politics and national interests, volatility and uncertainty.”

According to him, there are definitely opportunities for the sector. “But companies will have to fight for them. Competition is increasing and there will be more demands. But you have to continue seeing these as opportunities and challenges. I think the fresh produce sector in Flanders definitely has it in its power to meet these challenges.” How should the fresh produce sector respond to all these developments? Jonathan: “I would recommend keeping the domestic market at a high level. If we all consume ten grammes more, that would probably have a higher impact than several hundred thousand tonnes of fruit to India or China. I’m not saying export isn’t important, but for the fresh produce sector it’s important to continue making an effort for our own markets. An important part of this is investing in children. I have already seen the sector making much effort domestically, but this could definitely still be increased. Besides, it would be interesting to strengthen the bond between grower and education. Children should know pears don’t grow in the ground. Tomorrow’s market should be prepared to tell the story behind the products.”