Compared to last month, the 2015-2016 Florida all orange forecast is up 100,000 boxes and now at 81.5 million boxes, according yesterday’s release from the USDA Agricultural Statics Board. This comprises 36.1 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges, which is unchanged from last month and 45.4 million boxes of Valencia oranges. For Valencia oranges, it is an increase of 100,000 boxes from last month.
The production forecast for grapefruit, tangerines and tangelos remains unchanged. Total grapefruit forecast is 10.85 million boxes: 2.5 million boxes white and 8.35 million boxes of red grapefruit varieties. Tangerines remain at 1.43 million boxes with the early varieties (Fallglo and Sunburst) at 800,000 boxes and the remaining later maturing Honey tangerines at 630,000 boxes. The forecast of all Florida tangelo production is unchanged at 390,000 boxes.
Source: USDA, 2016
Big drop compared to last year
When comparing the forecast to last year’s numbers however, the picture becomes gloomy. If the forecast materializes, production of all oranges as well as grapefruit will be down 16 percent compared to last year. The situation is worse for tangerines and tangelos as their production numbers are expected to be down 37 and 41 percent respectively compared to last year.