The first months of the year have been marked by limited availability of prata bananas, reflecting the seasonal low-harvest period across Brazil's main producing regions: Bom Jesus da Lapa (BA), Vale do São Francisco (BA/PE), northern Minas Gerais, and Delfinópolis (MG).
Following the dry conditions observed in the second half of 2025, many plantations are still recovering from stress linked to increased irrigation water salinity in semi-arid areas. In Bom Jesus da Lapa and Vale do São Francisco, supply has declined gradually, with smaller fruit sizes reported. Since February, excessive rainfall has contributed to phytosanitary issues, particularly yellow Sigatoka.
Production prospects for 2026 may be affected, as the current combination of warm and humid conditions supports fungal development, requiring stricter crop management. This comes despite expectations of below-average rainfall in the second half of the year.
In northern Minas Gerais, supply has also declined. Fusarium Race 1 remains a concern, with increased incidence affecting fruit quality and raising the share of lower-grade bananas.
In Delfinópolis (MG), Cepea Hortifrúti collaborators report that milder spring conditions in 2025 reduced plant stress. As a result, fruit quality has been higher compared to the same period in previous years, alongside increased output. Further improvements in quality are expected in the coming months. Preventive crop management remains necessary, as current conditions of high humidity and temperatures also support Fusarium wilt development.
Across the main producing regions, marketed volumes in March are not expected to increase substantially through the end of the month, supporting prices. Rising diesel costs linked to the Middle East conflict have increased freight rates, leading producers, particularly those located further from distribution centers, to incorporate higher logistics costs into pricing.
A gradual increase in supply is expected between mid-April and May in the regions mentioned. Production is likely to reach its seasonal peak from June onward, with improvements in overall fruit quality.
Source: HFBrasil
