Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have begun to raise concerns for international trade due to their potential impact on logistics and energy costs. According to the Association of Banana Exporters of Ecuador (AEBE), the Ecuadorian banana sector could face indirect effects, mainly through increased shipping and insurance costs, crucial for a high-volume, low-margin product.
Based on AEBE data, the Middle East remains a key destination for Ecuadorian bananas. By December 2025, total shipments reached 56.20 million boxes of 18.14 kg each, marking an 11.74% rise from 2024, when 50.30 million boxes were exported. During this period, the region accounted for 14.85% of Ecuador's global banana exports.
Within the region, Turkey is the primary destination, accounting for 36.01% of the regional market, while Saudi Arabia accounts for 31.38%. According to AEBE, direct contact with importers in these destinations indicates a climate of relative stability and a continued demand despite international volatility.
The main threat to global trade is tied to oil prices and the security of strategic routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz. An escalation of the conflict in the region could raise maritime transport costs, increase insurance premiums, and cause volatility in financial markets.
For the Ecuadorian banana sector, these factors directly affect competitiveness. Rising logistics and energy costs impact the entire agro-export chain, from transportation to cold storage. Additionally, in a global inflationary setting, international buyers—particularly European supermarkets—often seek price reductions or renegotiating contracts.
Although the Middle East is not Ecuadorian bananas' primary destination -trailing markets like the European Union, Russia, and the United States- the sector views it as strategic because of its consistent growth and strong purchasing power.
According to AEBE, no immediate commercial risk has been identified. Adjustments focus on logistics, with some shipping lines already considering route changes to reduce operational risk. In case of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, alternatives include disembarkation at ports in Oman, located before this strategic sea passage.
Bananas occupy a significant place in global consumption. As an inexpensive and widely consumed fruit, it generally maintains a stable demand even during economic or geopolitical uncertainty.
AEBE emphasized that the Ecuadorian export sector is actively monitoring the situation, closely tracking logistics costs, assessing freight agreements, and collaborating with the public sector to sustain the product's international competitiveness.
According to the union, the top priority is to maintain a continuous supply to international markets and ensure Ecuadorian bananas reach their usual destinations, despite the growing complexities of the global context.
For more information:
AEBE
www.aebe.com.ec
