The probability of an upcoming El Niño, a climatic phenomenon that increases the average temperature of the planet, oscillates between 75 and 80% in the next three months, said the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
However, it is not expected to be very intense, according to the latest newsletter published by this Geneva-based UN agency.
"The upcoming El Niño should not be as intense as that of the 2015-2016 season, which caused droughts, floods and coral bleaching in various regions of the world," said Maxx Dilley, who heads the Office of Climate Prediction at WMO.
Nevertheless, "if we look at the long-term climate changes, this episode could cause temperatures to rise further in 2019 at a global scale," he added.
For now, "the ocean surface temperatures already correspond to a low intensity El Niño episode in some regions of the tropical Pacific," said the WMO in a statement.
In any case, the atmosphere has not yet reacted to this increase in temperatures, and the high winds, the nebulosity and the pressure at sea level are not yet those typical of an episode of El Niño, according to experts.
Although the episode will not be very intense, "it can still take a considerable impact on precipitation regimes and temperatures in many regions," Dilley said.
Source: AFP
