British Apples & Pears Limited (BAPL) has commissioned an independent analysis to assess the impact of the current conflict in Iran on production costs for British apple and pear growers.
According to Andersons Midlands, inflation since 1 March 2026 has added £31.30 per ton to the cost of growing UK Gala apples. Combined with the original 2026 forecast increase of £32 per ton, total production costs are expected to rise by £63.30 per ton, equivalent to 6.3 pence per kilo or a 4.5% increase. The main cost increases relate to fertiliser, fuel, electricity, packaging, and transport.
These findings follow inflationary pressures after the war in Ukraine in 2022. During that period, production costs rose by around 30% in two years, while supermarket returns increased by only 8%, affecting profitability.
© British Apples & Pears
There is concern that further inflation linked to developments in the Middle East could again result in grower returns not keeping pace with rising costs.
BAPL states that the longer-term impact is already visible. Its Orchard and Storage Census shows planned orchard planting over the next three years is around 32% below the average of the previous five years. Growers need to plant around 369 hectares each year to maintain the current orchard area, but current plans indicate only around 145 hectares annually.
BAPL says reduced profitability and lower reinvestment have contributed to slower orchard renewal, with concern that further cost increases could limit investment in orchards, storage, and technology.
Without sufficient reinvestment, the UK apple and pear sector may struggle to maintain production levels.
Ali Capper, Executive Chair of BAPL, said: "After one of the best harvest years we've ever had in 2025, British apple and pear growers are once again facing significant cost inflation caused by global events entirely beyond their control.
"The latest increases in fertiliser, fuel, electricity, packaging and transport costs come on top of several years of already rising production costs and squeezed margins.
"We have already seen the consequences when grower returns fail to keep pace with inflation. Profitability is reduced, businesses come under pressure, orchard renewal slows, and investment decisions are delayed.
"The industry has shown that it can weather periods of major global disruption, but repeated cost shocks cannot continue to be absorbed solely by growers.
"There is a real opportunity for retailers and growers to work together to ensure these additional costs are recognised fairly across the supply chain."
BAPL is urging retailers to follow the Groceries Code Adjudicator's seven golden rules on cost price increases, including clear communication, fair and timely decision-making, recognition of the impact on smaller suppliers, and avoiding delisting threats during negotiations.
© British Apples & PearsFor more information:
British Apples & Pears
Tel: +44 (0) 1507 353778
Email: [email protected]
www.britishapplesandpears.co.uk
