The U.S. strawberry industry enters 2026 with an expanding supply and stable demand, alongside increased exposure to trade disputes, regulatory changes, and shifting consumer behavior.
U.S. strawberry supply and demand continue to grow, with annual production exceeding 2.6 billion pounds and per capita availability near 8 pounds. California remains the primary supplier, supported by early-season volumes from Mexico. Stable exports, rising imports, and steady consumption continue to support the category's position within the U.S. fruit market.
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Weekly arrival and price projections for 2026 indicate typical seasonal supply patterns, with volatility during the spring transition and more stable conditions mid-season. Outcomes range from tighter supply and firmer pricing under constrained conditions to softer markets when volumes exceed expectations, reflecting the role of planting cycles and regional production.
Trade developments remain a factor. The winter strawberry antidumping case, filed by Florida growers against Mexican imports in late 2025, highlights the role of seasonality in the market. The case applies specifically to seasonal imports and uses a regional industry provision, which may influence the outcome of the investigation.
Regulatory changes are also affecting the sector, particularly in packaging. California's SB 54 and SB 343 introduce requirements on recyclability, plastic reduction, and producer responsibility. PET clamshells, commonly used in strawberry packaging, may remain compliant with design adjustments, while many fiber-based alternatives currently do not meet recyclability thresholds. Compliance costs and evolving regulations are expected to influence packaging and supply chain decisions.
On the demand side, consumer behavior shows divergence. Higher-income households are trading up, while lower-income consumers are focusing on price. Health-related preferences and the increased use of GLP-1 medications are contributing to demand for minimally processed foods, supporting continued consumption of strawberries.
For more information:
Nanne van Nunen
Rabobank
Email: [email protected]
www.rabobank.com
