Mexico is expected to maintain its position as the world's largest avocado producer, with production forecast to reach 2.8 million tons in calendar year 2026, according to the USDA report Avocado Annual.
The forecast represents a 3 per cent increase compared with 2025 production levels. The increase is linked to agricultural practices, rainfall patterns, and sustained export demand. The planted avocado area is expected to remain stable at about 268,000 hectares. Mexico accounts for an estimated 28 per cent of global avocado production.
Avocado production occurs in 30 of Mexico's 32 states. However, Michoacan and Jalisco dominate the sector, representing about 85 per cent of total production. These two states are also the only regions currently authorised to export avocados to the United States.
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Michoacan remains the main production area due to volcanic soils and elevation levels between 1,200 and 2,300 meters above sea level. These conditions support multiple blooming cycles, which enable a year-round supply to export markets.
Weather conditions during 2025 supported production growth for the 2026 crop. Late-season rainfall through November and early December helped recharge aquifers in producing regions. Combined with temperatures between 68°F and 73°F in December, these conditions supported flowering and fruit retention.
The Hass variety continues to dominate commercial production because of its storage performance and consumer demand. Following a 2024 season affected by heat stress and smaller fruit sizes, the 2025 crop has shown recovery in size and quality, with growers reporting higher availability of retail sizes such as 40s and 48s.
Avocado exports from Mexico are forecast to increase by 7 per cent in 2026 to about 1.31 million tons. The United States remains the primary destination, accounting for nearly 90 per cent of Mexico's export volume. Canada, Japan, and Central America represent the remaining export markets.
In 2025, exports reached 1.22 million tons, with shipments to the United States totaling 1.08 million tons. Seasonal demand events such as the Super Bowl continue to influence export flows, with shipments reaching 136,000 tons over a four-week period between January and February.
Domestic consumption in Mexico is forecast at 1.5 million tons in 2026, a slight decline from 2025 levels due to higher export demand. Approximately 20 per cent of the national crop is processed into products such as guacamole, pulp, oil, and cosmetics, using fruit that does not meet export standards.
Mexico is not a large avocado importer. Imports mainly come from Peru and Colombia and are expected to reach about 3,000 tons in 2026 to support supply during seasonal production gaps.
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