Mexican tomato exports to Canada increased in 2025 as producers redirected shipments following the antidumping tariff imposed by the United States in July. According to data from Banxico and the Ministry of Economy, exports of fresh or chilled tomatoes to Canada reached US$8.1 million between January and November 2025, up 134 per cent compared with the same period in 2024.
The increase follows a weaker year in 2024, when Mexican tomato exports to Canada totalled US$4.1 million, down 24.5 per cent from 2023. Although Canada remains a small destination in overall trade terms, its share has expanded. In the first ten months of 2025, Canada accounted for 0.34 per cent of Mexico's tomato exports, compared with 0.11 per cent a year earlier. Over the same period, the U.S. share declined by 8 per cent.
Timing data indicate that 74 per cent of Mexico's tomato exports to Canada occurred between August and November 2025, after the U.S. tariff entered into force. On 14 July 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce withdrew from the Tomato Suspension Agreement and introduced an antidumping tariff of between 17 per cent and 21 per cent on Mexican tomatoes. The decision affected shipments, reference pricing, and planting plans.
Between January and November 2025, Mexico's tomato exports to the U.S. fell by about 16 per cent year on year. In response, the sector implemented minimum export prices by variety, aimed at stabilising returns.
Tomatoes generate about US$3 billion annually in Mexico's agri-exports. Around 99.7 per cent of exports, valued at more than US$2.8 billion, traditionally go to the U.S., increasing exposure to policy changes.
"This concentration almost entirely in one market, while it made us leaders there, now makes us extraordinarily fragile, subjecting the fate of thousands of producers and jobs to the political swings of our northern neighbor," said José Gerardo Tajonar, President of the National Association of Importers and Exporters of Mexico.
Tajonar said the U.S. tariff affects producers in Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California. "This is where diversification stops being an option and becomes a strategic imperative, and Canada emerges as the most logical alternative," he said.
Canada consumes about 780,000 tons of tomatoes annually and offers tariff-free access under the USMCA, but Mexico supplies only around 0.3 per cent of that market. Industry sources also pointed to changes in logistics, including a consolidated rail network linking Mexico, the U.S., and Canada.
"This steel backbone, which directly connects Mexico's production zones with Canada's consumption centers, offers intermodal transport services with refrigerated railcars capable of moving large volumes more efficiently, economically, and with greater certainty than ever before," Tajonar said.
"Leveraging USMCA's preferential access and the new rail corridor," he added, "is not a betrayal of the U.S. market, but an act of economic sovereignty and basic business prudence."
Source: Mexico Business News
