Currently, Chilean cherries in the Chinese market are in their peak sales season, and prices are showing notable fluctuations. "The cherry market experienced a slight recovery in the week following New Year's Day. Reduced arrivals, anticipated higher demand, and many traders repurchasing after the holiday temporarily reduced spot market supply, pushing prices up. However, this week, both prices and demand have declined again," said Mr. Lyons Lee of Guizhou Shouyang Agricultural Products Co., Ltd.
Regarding prices, he noted: "Taking the Lapins 2.5kg × 2 (two-in-one) packaging as an example, prices this week have dropped about 15% compared to last week. The wholesale market opening price for 2J and 3J specifications is approximately ¥190/box (about US$27/box) and ¥240/box (about US$34/box), respectively, the lowest for this period in recent years. Several factors explain this: demand has decreased in stages after New Year's Day, and the Chinese New Year is later this year, still about a month away, resulting in generally low current demand. In addition, actual Chilean cherry production this season is lower than expected, and total arrivals have gradually declined. Many traders, anticipating higher prices before the holiday, have temporarily stored high-quality batches for later sale, prioritizing the sale of lower-quality or shorter-shelf-life cherries. This strategy also puts pressure on current prices."
Looking ahead, Lyons said, "Based on past experience, the two weeks before the Chinese New Year are typically the peak purchasing period. We expect the market may gradually recover after January 19th, reaching peak demand in early February. However, given this year's overall consumption environment, actual demand remains uncertain, and market fluctuations will need to be closely monitored."
Regarding arrivals, Santina and Lapins cherries are nearing the end of their season, while Regina cherries have started arriving earlier. "The quality of late-season Santina batches is inconsistent. Lapins maintains generally good quality, but with significantly lower arrivals, making it the main variety experiencing reduced production this season. Regina production has also declined, and some batches may be of lower quality than last year. Overall, there are no major quality issues this season, but high-quality stock is scarce, and many fruits have minor surface defects. Considering both quality and price, Lapins remains the most popular variety in the market, although supply is relatively tight."
Packaging preferences are also shifting. Lyons noted: "This year, buyers favor 5kg large boxes, but arrivals are limited. Due to traditional sales habits, most suppliers continue offering two-in-one packaging. Large boxes are preferred because they are more cost-effective, though the price difference is now minimal."
Regarding the pre-holiday market, Lyons further explained: "With actual production lower than expected, cherry deliveries before the Chinese New Year will drop significantly, while holiday demand is expected to rise. Tight supply combined with increased demand could trigger a notable price increase. However, the impact will depend on individual traders' inventory levels and the quality of available fruit. If inventory is generally high, it may moderate the price trend despite strong demand."
