Australia is facing a 15% drop in avocado production for the 2024/25 season, according to a newly released report by Rabobank's RaboResearch division. The decline is attributed to the natural phenomenon of "alternate bearing," where avocado trees produce a heavy crop one year, followed by a lighter one the next.
Despite the dip, Australian production is forecast to bounce back to record levels in the 2025/26 season, reaching approximately 170,000 metric tons. Even with the current year's lower output, the country is expected to produce 128,000 metric tons, equivalent to nearly 20 avocados per person annually.
Slower growth in plantings
RaboResearch analyst Anna Drake noted that while new avocado acreage is still being planted, the rate has slowed sharply since its peak in 2019. Plantings in 2024 fell to their lowest level since 1999, down over 90% from their 2019 highs. This decline signals the beginning of a leveling-off in production growth.
Although production is expected to rebound next year, Drake suggested that the long-term production growth rate will moderate, reflecting a stabilisation in supply. The 2024 export volumes remained flat year-on-year, but prices improved for growers, up 13% to AUD 5.18 (USD 3.44) per kilogram.
Export volumes to China, Singapore, and Malaysia remained steady, while exports to India rose significantly, following improved market access. Over the past five years, 10 to 15% of Australia's avocado production has moved into export channels.
Looking ahead, Drake emphasized that continued export growth will be critical to easing downward pressure on domestic prices once production rebounds.
Global market trends
The global avocado market has reached an estimated annual value of USD 20.5 billion, driven by growing demand, particularly in Latin America, North America, and Europe, markets which collectively account for 88% of total market value.
David Magaña, RaboResearch senior horticulture analyst, highlighted Latin America's leadership in avocado consumption, while also pointing to strong growth opportunities in underdeveloped markets across the rest of the world.
Avocado exports are growing rapidly, with global export volumes expected to exceed 3 million metric tons by the 2026/27 season. This is a threefold increase from 1 million tons exported in 2012/13. The growth is largely driven by increased output from top exporters, Mexico, Peru, and Colombia, which account for around two-thirds of the global supply.
The expansion of avocado production into new countries is another contributing factor. However, the report cautions that seasonal oversupply and rising pressure on margins will require stronger marketing strategies and efforts to stimulate consumer demand.
For more information:
Denise Shaw
Rabobank
Tel: +61 (0) 2 8115 2744
Email: [email protected]
www.rabobank.com.au
