The 145% U.S. tariff on Chinese imports is influencing trade flows across various agricultural commodities, including apple juice. Historically, China has provided about two-thirds of the apple juice consumed in the U.S. The Expana Benchmark Price (EBP) for Chinese apple juice is currently $1625/MT. Since the tariff was announced, trading activity has decreased. Many transactions were completed before the expected tariff hikes, and there is now limited availability of apple concentrate.
With constrained Chinese supply, market participants are evaluating how the U.S. will address the shortfall. Turkey, which faces a 10% tariff, is seen as a potential alternative supplier. Market sources suggest this could be an opportunity for Turkey to increase exports to the U.S., although it is unlikely to match China's volume independently.
The EU, traditionally a smaller supplier to the U.S., may also see increased interest. The U.S. has paused reciprocal tariffs on the EU for 90 days but has maintained the 10% baseline. The EBP for medium acidity concentrate from the EU is €2150/MT, representing a 16% increase year-over-year.
While alternative sources exist, market players indicate that replacing China's supply will be challenging in the near term due to its previous market share.
Source: Mintec/Expana