Thailand's durian exports face growing uncertainty as competition from Vietnam intensifies and Chinese demand softens. According to economist Aat Pisanwanich, exports this year are expected to reach between 750,000 and 850,000 tonnes, valued at approximately $2.2 to $2.5 billion. However, Vietnam's rapid increase in durian production threatens Thailand's dominance, with its harvest expected to match Thailand's within two years.
Over the past decade, Thailand's durian production surged by 180%, reaching 1.4 million tonnes in 2023. Despite this, Thailand remains heavily reliant on China, which absorbs over 90% of its exports. In 2024, Thai durian exports to China declined 13% to 859,183 tonnes, with value dropping from $4.12 billion to $3.75 billion. Meanwhile, Vietnam's exports to China surged, reaching 330,000 tonnes in 2024, up from just 20,000 tonnes in 2022.
Chinese authorities have intensified inspections on Thai durians, particularly regarding chemical use. Consumer concerns over cadmium contamination last year and the presence of Basic Yellow 2 (BY2) dye this year have weakened confidence in Thai durians. Farmers often harvest at 80% ripeness, leading some to use dye for improved appearance. Experts recommend harvesting at optimal ripeness to eliminate the need for artificial enhancements.
Vietnam's year-round durian supply gives it an advantage over Thailand, where production is limited to six months. Additionally, Vietnam benefits from lower logistics costs due to its shared border with China, making its durians a growing alternative. While Thailand's 'Monthong' durians are renowned for their sweet, creamy flavor, Vietnam is developing improved varieties to compete.
Vietnamese durians also face chemical residue concerns, but its government has been proactive in enforcing stricter measures. Unlike in Thailand, where Chinese traders primarily purchase durians without contributing to farm development, Vietnam requires foreign buyers to invest in improving quality. In some cases, Chinese traders in Thailand purchase entire orchards, leading to inconsistent quality control.
Drought conditions in Thailand pose another risk, potentially reducing production and exports. Experts suggest implementing a "One Pond, One Durian Orchard" policy to ensure a stable water supply and extend the production season. Strengthening traceability, public relations, and laboratory testing is also crucial to maintaining China's trust in Thai durians.
Thailand must expand its export markets to reduce reliance on China. Aat recommends targeting the U.S., the Middle East, Australia, and India to secure alternative buyers.
Concerns over BY2 dye remain urgent. Thai Fresh Fruit Traders and Exporters Association president Sanchai Puranachaikiri warned that continued use of the dye, classified as a carcinogen, could prompt China to suspend durian imports entirely. Authorities have already taken legal action against violators, but stricter penalties, including revoking manufacturing and export licenses, are necessary.
To maintain its competitive edge, Thailand must address chemical concerns, improve production standards, and diversify export markets. Proactive government measures will be key to ensuring the long-term success of the Thai durian industry.
Source: Bangkok Post
