The United Kingdom is preparing contingency plans for potential disruption to food supply chains linked to the ongoing conflict and restricted movement of key agricultural inputs.
Government officials are modelling scenarios in which disruption to shipping routes continues, with particular focus on the impact on carbon dioxide (CO2) supply. CO2 is used in food production processes, including greenhouse vegetable production, salad packaging, and refrigeration.
The immediate risk is related to pressure within the supply chain rather than product availability. Sectors such as cucumber production and salad processing are exposed, particularly as producers are already facing higher fuel and fertiliser costs.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned of broader risks to agricultural inputs. "The clock is ticking" to prevent a "dangerous spike" in food inflation. FAO stated that movement of shipments carrying agricultural inputs is required to avoid lower yields and higher prices. "We are in an input crisis; we don't want to make it a catastrophe," said David Laborde, Director of FAO's Agrifood Economics Division. "The difference depends on the actions we take."
FAO has advised countries to review biofuel policies and avoid restrictions on energy and fertiliser exports.
In the UK, a government initiative known as 'Exercise Turnstone' is focused on contingency planning for CO2 shortages. Business representatives indicate that supply chains are currently stable. "We are not flagging any issues in our supply chain at this point," said Tesco chief executive Ken Murphy. "We're not seeing any availability issues. We are in very good shape."
Retail organisations have indicated that while supply remains stable, cost pressures are increasing. For consumers, the impact is expected to be reflected in higher prices rather than reduced availability.
The National Farmers' Union has indicated that prices for greenhouse crops such as tomatoes and cucumbers could increase, with further cost increases expected across other sectors.
Rising input costs, including fertiliser, energy, and logistics, are expected to influence production costs and food pricing. "The outlook for 2026 points to continued pressure on farm economics and increased downside risks for global crop production and food price stability," a Rabobank spokesperson stated.
In response, the UK government has taken measures to support domestic CO2 supply, including restarting the Ensus bioethanol plant. Officials continue to prepare for further disruption if supply constraints persist.
Source: FPC
