Latest free-buy potato prices in the UK are well below year-earlier levels. Potato Call is quoting the top end of the Maris Piper market at £180 per ton, compared with around £400 per ton at the same point last year. For growers on contract, agreed volumes are providing some income stability this season. However, following a year of surplus supply, contract prices for the 2026/27 season have also moved lower.
The total potato area for 2026 remains uncertain. The availability of lower-priced seed could encourage some additional planting. Even so, analysis of previous seasons with weak price points suggests a reduction in planted area. A decline of at least 5 per cent, but less than 10 per cent, would bring the UK planted area to just under 100,000 hectares, with production potentially below five million tons.
© GB Potatoes
The UK market retains some insulation because of its island location. In contrast, growers across much of Northern Europe are dealing with large free-buy stocks that are proving difficult to move. Where sales are possible, prices are often no higher than €15 per ton, with some volumes being cleared at no payment for animal feed or biodigestion. Processing demand is also under pressure, particularly in the Netherlands and Belgium, limiting outlets for surplus supplies. As the end of the season approaches, the scope for any meaningful price recovery appears limited. Contract prices for 2026/27 are reported to be down by as much as 20 per cent in parts of Northern Europe, with buyers also reducing contracted volumes. Under these conditions, a reduction of up to 10 per cent in the European potato area for 2026 is considered possible.
Imports start to slip
The UK continues to import substantial volumes of frozen fries, although recent data point to easing demand. Total imports over the past year declined by 3.5 per cent, with a 6.0 per cent drop recorded in the five months to the end of November. This may reflect softer conditions in the UK foodservice sector, a major destination for Dutch and Belgian fries and chips. On a global level, European and North American processors are also facing increased competition from lower-priced frozen products originating in China and India, particularly across Asian markets.
UK seed potato exports in October and November increased by 1.2 per cent year on year to 58,411 tons. December volumes, however, fell by 18.5 per cent, including a 21.4 per cent drop in shipments to Egypt. Trade in fresh potatoes remains subdued.
Despite the overall pressure on the sector, retail sales of fresh potatoes are showing signs of recovery as consumers respond to price sensitivity. Looking ahead, tighter plantings or delayed sowing in 2026, combined with weather variability, could still influence supply and price dynamics in the 2026/27 season.
© GB PotatoesFor more information:
GB Potatoes
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www.gb-potatoes.co.uk
