Mexican red tomato exports declined in 2025, with export value down 5.5 per cent to US$2.239 billion. In volume terms, shipments fell by 4.2 per cent to 1,798,000 tons, indicating lower export activity compared with the previous year.
A key development affecting trade was the decision by the United States to impose an anti-dumping duty of 17.09 per cent on Mexican tomato imports, effective 14 July 2025. This measure represents a shift in bilateral tomato trade after several decades of regulation through suspension agreements.
Over the past 27 years, five suspension agreements have governed tomato trade between Mexico and the U.S., signed in 1996, 2002, 2008, 2013, and 2019. The most recent agreement was concluded under Section 734(c) of the Tariff Act of 1930 and was intended to eliminate harmful effects related to pricing and competition.
Alongside trade developments, production conditions in Mexico have also influenced supply. In June 2025, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected that Mexican tomato production would decline by 3 per cent year on year to 3.1 million metric tons. This revision was linked to ongoing adverse temperature and rainfall conditions during the production cycle.
The USDA also anticipated a reduction in autumn-winter planting. This adjustment was associated with the introduction of additional U.S. tariffs on most Mexican tomatoes from July 2025, which has affected growers' planting decisions.
Production pressures were already evident in 2024. That year, drought conditions led to a 1 per cent decline in output to 3.19 million metric tons, compared with 3.22 million metric tons in 2023, based on official estimates.
Mexico's tomato sector includes both open-field and protected cultivation systems. NatureSweet is among the larger producers and exporters, operating primarily with greenhouse production models. Grupo San Cayetano has a broad agricultural footprint with diversified operations, while Grupo Bionatur focuses on protected agriculture aimed at the U.S. market.
In the United States, industrial tomato processing remains concentrated among a small number of operators. The Morning Star Company is the main player in processing tomatoes for industrial use, while Del Monte Foods, Conagra Brands, and Campbell Soup are active in sauces, purées, and preserved tomato products through established processing networks.
The combined impact of tariffs, weather-related production constraints, and planting adjustments continues to shape the outlook for Mexican red tomato exports.
Source: Opportimes
