Florida citrus production for the 2025–2026 season is forecast to remain close to last year's historically low levels, according to the January outlook published by the United States Department of Agriculture.
Total orange production in Florida is forecast at 12.0 million boxes, representing a 2 per cent decline compared with the final output of the 2024–2025 season. This total consists of 4.5 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges and 7.5 million boxes of Valencia oranges.
Non-Valencia orange production is projected to fall by 2 per cent year on year. The number of bearing trees declined to 6.71 million, down 23 per cent from the previous season. Fruit per tree for early- and mid-season non-Valencia varieties increased to 408 pieces, while final fruit size remained below the long-term average, requiring 319 pieces to fill a 90-pound box. Final droppage is estimated at 40 per cent, above average.
© USDA
Valencia orange production is forecast at 7.5 million boxes, down 1 per cent from last season. Bearing trees are estimated at 14.0 million, an 18 per cent reduction year on year. Fruit per tree increased to 288 pieces, but projected fruit size remains below average, with an estimated 256 pieces per box. Droppage for Valencia oranges is also projected at 40 per cent.
Grapefruit production in Florida is forecast at 1.2 million boxes, an 8 per cent decline compared with last season. Red grapefruit accounts for 1.1 million boxes, down 5 per cent, while white grapefruit production is estimated at 100,000 boxes, representing a 29 per cent decrease. Bearing tree numbers for grapefruit declined marginally, while fruit size is expected to finish above average.
Lemon production in Florida is forecast to rise to 700,000 boxes, an increase of 4 per cent from last season. Tangerine and tangelo production is forecast at 400,000 boxes, unchanged year on year.
The USDA noted that forecast procedures are based on objective fruit counts, limb surveys, fruit size measurements, and drop surveys, using bearing tree data from the most recent Commercial Citrus Inventory. Trees planted in 2022 or earlier were included as bearing for the current season, with attrition factors applied to reflect losses since the inventory period.
Due to disruptions earlier in the season, the USDA plans to release only two additional citrus forecast updates, scheduled for April and July 2026.
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For more information:
USDA
Tel: +1 202 720 2791
Email: [email protected]
www.nass.usda.gov
