With Christmas just around the corner and the New Year just around the corner, it seems a good time to take stock of the hard fruit market. "For the pear market, the situation remains unabatedly tense. This has been the case since the end of September and, given the current stock figures, we expect it to remain so for the time being," says Combilo's Randy Dijksman.
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"That we would face challenging conditions in the orchard was clear beforehand," he continues. "Meanwhile, some parties are suggesting that collectively we harvested a week late. I find that statement to be a little weak. It's always easy to judge with hindsight. The fact remains that there is a considerable stock of pears that need to be culled on time, especially Conference. In this respect, the Netherlands could perhaps take a leaf out of Belgium's book, where timely culling is central and the registers are open. There, the market for Conference is actually made, after which the Netherlands will follow. Later in the season, when switching to long storage varieties, this division of roles usually reverses again."
For BA Lucas, Randy argues, the Netherlands actually leads the market. "The vast majority of the volume is here and there is no auction to guide the price. Moreover, most of the exports are probably in the hands of a limited number of parties. Compared to Conference, the results here are remarkably good. Culling is ahead of schedule, shelf life is strong and consumers are offered a high-quality product. The lower supply of local pears in countries like Romania and Bulgaria has certainly contributed to this. We expect BA Lucas exports to continue until the end of January. Moreover, due to concerns around the timely culling of Conference, we have now started to convert some lines to this variety early. In addition, together with supermarkets, we continue to plan continuous promotional campaigns."
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Poles on the market longer
"At the same time, we see that the failure rate in some batches of Conference is already relatively high. The price for the processing industry is therefore under considerable pressure. The flip side, however, is that despite the fact that there is almost 100 million kilos more Conference gross in stock in the Netherlands and Belgium as of 1 December, there is less net volume to be sold," he explains.
"Worryingly, though, Poland itself still has significant pear stocks, especially Conference. This means it is likely to take longer for them to come forward as buyers on the market. Moreover, Poland itself has started exporting to markets where the Netherlands and Belgium have traditionally been active, such as Scandinavia. This is a development that is expected to increase in the coming years. We also currently have a limited presence in the UK due to a large domestic harvest. In Germany, on the other hand, we are clearly benefiting from the disappointing harvest in Italy, from which the Xenia® variety, among others, is benefiting."
Randy warns, "In summary, it is very important to keep a cool head and work closely with retail to develop a plan to secure a timely culling of Conference."
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Imports in early February
Looking at imports in the new year, he expects the first volumes from South Africa in early February. "Traditionally starting with Williams BC. Volumes are expected to be limited, partly because size has lagged somewhat. Despite recent rains, size CNT90 seems to be becoming dominant, which is on the small side for the European market. At the end of February, we switch to Packham's. Here, on the contrary, we expect nice volumes, 
© Combilomoreover in a better size range. These pears may find their way to Eastern Europe, among others, in line with the BA Lucas sales. For premium varieties such as Abate and Forelle, the outlook is still uncertain. This will strongly depend on the pace at which Conference can continue to be culled and on the general development of the pear market."
Apple export opportunities limited
The apple market is also still fairly challenging. "As for apples, we see and hear that Elstar is currently the biggest worry child. Supermarkets are conducting almost continuous campaigns, but the end does not seem to be in sight yet. Export opportunities are limited for now, although we have seen in the past more often that the market can suddenly pick up in March or April. Jonagold got off to a reasonably positive start, but is now also starting to struggle. Poland entered the apple market late and the volume available for distant destinations is limited by large differences in hardness within lots. Where previously significant volumes of Polish apples were traded, we are therefore significantly more cautious this season."
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For more information:
Randy Dijksman
Combilo
Tel: +31 (0)180 446 747
[email protected]
www.combilo.nl
