The USDA has raised its 2025 almond production forecast to 3.0 billion pounds, based on objective field measurements conducted between May 24 and June 28. This figure, coming from 1.39 million bearing acres with an average yield of 2,160 pounds per acre, marks a 7% increase over May's Subjective Forecast of 2.8 billion pounds and a 10% rise over 2024's final production of 2.73 billion pounds.
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This upward revision follows historical patterns but is notable for exceeding earlier expectations. In contrast, the 2024 forecast began at 3.0 billion pounds before being adjusted down to 2.8 billion and ultimately closing at 2.73 billion pounds. Historically, the Objective Measurement tends to land 3% below the Subjective Forecast on average, making this year's increase unusual and market-moving.
Market participants describe the revised estimate as bearish, anticipating downward pressure on almond prices. Sellers have raised concerns about how USDA calculates acreage using LandIQ's April estimate, suggesting the inclusion of damaged or abandoned orchards may have inflated projections.
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Meanwhile, the Almond Board of California's May position report, released July 10, updated market insights on supply and demand. June 2025 shipments totaled 187 million pounds—9% below June 2024 and slightly below the 190 million-pound average expected by analysts surveyed by Expana. Of the total, 51 million pounds were shipped domestically (down 17.2% year-on-year) and 135 million pounds were exported (down 9.4%).
From August through June, season-to-date shipments reached 2.45 billion pounds, 2.5% lower than the same period last year. Domestic shipments trail by 54 million pounds (-8%), while exports are just 9 million pounds below last year (-0.5%). Exports continue to play an outsized role, making up 75% of total shipments, up from 73% last year and a three-year average of 72%.
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Top international markets in June included India (34.7 million pounds), Spain (12.2 million), Italy (8.9 million), UAE (8.3 million), and Japan (8.0 million). Southeast Asia and the Middle East posted strong year-to-date growth, up 34% and 7%, respectively.
New sales totaled 97 million pounds in June, a 5% year-on-year increase. Domestic new sales surged 50% to 25 million pounds, while export new sales hit 72 million pounds, up 7% year-on-year. Committed inventory stood at 312 million pounds (down 20%), while uncommitted inventory rose to 399 million pounds, up 18%.
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New receipts added 0.8 million pounds, bringing the crop year-to-date total to 2.71 billion pounds, with few additional receipts expected.
Source 1: Mintec/Expana
Source 2: Mintec/Expana
