According to EastFruit analysts, in 2023 Uzbekistan could collect a record onion crop. Estimates of a possible increase in onion production volumes vary greatly, but the most pessimistic scenario, voiced by market participants in Uzbekistan and local experts shows a yield increase of at least 30-40% compared to the average annual indicators, although there are those who believe that production can even double.
With an average production of 1.2-1.4mn tons of onions per year, according to FAOSTAT, a 30% increase means additional 400,00 tons of onions, which is a lot. Please bear in mind that Uzbekistan exports on average 200,000 tones of onions per year and in case of pessimistic scenario, it will have to push 600,000 tons of onions out of the country in 2023/24.
As one can see in the chart above, there is no definite feeling of a record harvest from the price level yet. Moreover, prices have been fairly stable for about five weeks in a row. This is explained by the incredibly high rates of onion exports after the export restrictions have been lifted and until the end of June at least. As we already wrote, in March-June 2023, at least 222 thousand tons of onions were exported from Uzbekistan, which was a record figure for such a short period of time.
However, at that time, onion harvesting had not yet begun in countries with a colder climate. Now the situation is completely different. Onion prices are now collapsing even in the Ukrainian market, which has lost more than 80% of its traditional onion cultivation areas due to the blowing up of the Kakhovka Dam by Russian invaders and the destruction and looting of irrigation systems, storage facilities, sorting lines, agricultural machinery and other elements of production technologies in the temporarily occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine. At the same time, the main onion crop in Ukraine and other large onion-producing countries in Europe, such as Poland, the Netherlands and Germany, has not yet been harvested. Therefore, the pressure on onion prices is just beginning.
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For more information: east-fruit.com