Brazilian orange juice processors concluded 2023 with diminished reserves, reporting 463.94 thousand tons of stock as of December 31, 2023, according to CitrusBR. This figure, although 6.7% higher than the previous year, marks the second lowest since records began in 2011.
With the industry entering the offseason and relying on these stocks for international supply, a decrease in volume is anticipated, raising concerns about global availability. Brazil, as the leading exporter, faces uncertainty for the 2024/25 crop, with no predictions for an increase in orange production.
Initial stocks for 2023/24 stood at 84.75 thousand tons, with processing of 267 million boxes, after excluding 40 million boxes for the domestic market. Considering the previous season's juice yield and a 6% drop in exports from July 2023 to February 2024, stocks might reach 94.5 thousand tons by June 30, 2024, an 11% increase from the previous year. This projection, however, comes off the back of historically low ending stocks in 2022/23.
Source: cepea.esalq.usp.br