Mendoza will only harvest 30% of its production due to inclement weather. There is stock from the previous season to export and the price for the harvest of plums to dehydrate hasn't been defined yet.
Last year's spring frosts in the south of the province spoiled 70% of Mendoza's plum crops. However, there is a remaining stock of 10 thousand tons from the previous harvest which will be exported.
In late 2015, the Institute of Rural Development (IDR) predicted a production of approximately 127 thousand tons of fresh plums, a year later, they forecast about 40 thousand tons. The historical average annual production volume is 160 thousand tons. Producers, who recently began harvesting, stated that "we expect to harvest about 25% of what we normally harvest in a year, which would amount to some 13,000 dry tons. That's a very low volume."
The chairman of the Prune Exporters from Mendoza (Cecim), Jorge Ruiz, was a little more optimistic and said that IDR's forecast "added many kilos to what is in stock from last year. That's probably more than 10,000 tons between what the industrialists and producers have, which would allow Argentina to fairly serve their markets."
Another factor that would allow production to meet demand is that "the two main drivers of Argentina's plum demand, Russia and Brazil, continue to have serious economic problems and are very withdrawn," Ruiz said. "Consequently we are expecting to see a decrease in the export demand." In other words, there should be enough product to meet a reduced demand.
Prices haven't been set yet
The price for fresh plum was set at 4.50 pesos per kilo. However, the price for dried plums still hasn't been agreed upon, according to El Enfiteuta. Yet producers had to start harvesting plums some weeks ago to dehydrate them.
Since the State of California in the United States also had large production losses, expectations are that there will be a lower global supply that will lead to a spike in prices.
For now, the international price has not moved (which is also influenced by the contraction in demand from Brazil and Russia). The president of Cecim said that "A 10 kilo box of plums, gauging (70-80), costs more or less 20 or 21 dollars, in St. Petersburg." The international price should be set soon, after the food and beverage fairs in Moscow and Dubai, "which is where all the Chilean companies go, and where international prices for this fruit are set," said Ruiz.
The Undersecretary of Agriculture from Mendoza, Alfredo ACIAR, was also optimistic about this issue: "prices should react a little and increase to at least at $24 or more because of the decline in international production," he said. This means that the producers' luck depends on the evolution of international business.
Meanwhile, producer Carlos Albera said that "some manufacturers are offering about 3.50 pesos or slightly more per kilo of fresh plums, that is 40% more than last season, when it started at 2.50." He also said that, up until October 2016, a kilo of dried plums was sold for 12 to 15 pesos.
Source: elenfiteuta.com
