Florida and Texas, together with China, South Africa and Mexico, are the world's largest grapefruit producers. The start of the campaigns in the northern hemisphere is around the corner, while the season in the countries of the southern hemisphere is now coming to an end. This transition between seasons is gradual. Mexico is currently still exporting large volumes, while Israel is starting with small volumes.
Florida harvest affected by hurricane
Due to the impact of hurricane Matthew and of bad weather in previous months, the season has been delayed by a week or two. The harvest this year is 11 percent smaller, reaching 9.6 million boxes, according to estimates by the USDA. Of these, 7.5 million boxes correspond to red grapefruit. These prospects have not yet taken the damage caused by hurricane Matthew into account. A grower explains that some fruit has been lost, but that he is especially pleased to still be in business. When the harvest begins, it will be easier to estimate the extent of the damage caused by the hurricane. On average, a 15 percent loss has been estimated.
A positive aspect is that the quality this year is better. The Brix levels are higher than in the previous campaign. Furthermore, the demand is high. Japan is an important market that will be empty by the time the Florida grapefruit becomes available. Europe is the second most important destination, and its market will also be virtually empty. Approximately half of the volume is intended for export.
Positive South African season
Grapefruit exports this season will amount to about 12.4 million boxes (15 kg each); that's 23% less than in the record year 2015. The drought in Letsitele and Onderberg and hail in Hoedspruit have been the main causes for the decline in volume. In addition, 2016 was an 'off-year'. Growers continue to try supplying all markets. The export season was good, with the Chinese market paying especially good prices.
Mexico sees opportunities in global market
The grapefruit harvest in Mexico is very large, especially in the Michoacan region. Most of the production is exported to Europe. In the past, Mexico had a window of 2 to 3 weeks on the European market, but due to climate change and the problems with the crop in Florida, Mexico has now gained a firmer foothold and has more room on the market. The Mexican season kicks off in August and lasts until November.
Mexican producers are optimistic about the export season. The demand is good, although the focus of the exporters shifts to soft fruit as soon as this product hits the market. Last season, a total of 60,000 tonnes were exported, with the main markets being the United States, Japan, Canada and France.
Besides Europe, Japan is also increasingly demanding more grapefruit. This market has only recently opened for Mexico. It is a remarkable feat, given that China is also a major producer. Japanese demand is high from October to January.
Egypt waits for start of season
The season for Egyptian growers starts by the end of the year. An exporter already expects prices to go up under the influence of the exchange rate with the Euro, US dollar and pound sterling. These changes in exchange rates also affect other products, which is why an impact is expected on grapefruit prices.
The weather has so far been favourable, so a good quality is expected; however, there are some problems with damage to the skin, a problem that growers have had difficulties to keep in check. Regarding exports, there are good prospects for the Russian market, and an exporter reports it has managed to add Iceland to its list of export destinations.
Spanish acreage expanding
Although the acreage usually remains almost stable in Spain, a slight increase has been recorded over the last two years. Most new plantings of grapefruit trees have taken place in Murcia, which is also the largest producer nationwide. Thanks to these new plantings, the production will grow in the coming years. The season starts in late October. Estimates point to a 6% decline in volume compared to last year, from the 71,400 tonnes harvested last season to 67,000 tonnes this campaign. The sizes are smaller this year, although the rains recorded in recent weeks may still have a positive impact in this regard. Last season, prices remained stable. The South African season ended with good prices and Spanish growers hope that theirs will follow the same trend. The exporters are hoping to take advantage of the smaller harvest in Florida and the lower volumes shipped to Europe by Israel.
Only imports available in Italy
It is too early for domestic grapefruits. The start of the season is not yet in sight, with the first grapefruits expected for December. The season then lasts through the spring. On the wholesale market at Cesena, the first grapefruits grown on Italian soil are not expected until February. At present, South African fruit is available at a price of 15 to 20 Euro for a box of 15 kilos. Traditionally, the market prefers the white variety, but the red is also available. Turkish grapefruits are expected in 15 days.
South African grapefruits are available in other wholesale markets. In Verona, the price stands at 0.93 Euro per kilo for the white and 1.18 Euro per kilo for the red. In Turin, the prices are similar. Only in Rome do we see a different picture, with the red (€ 1.10 per kilo) costing more than the white (1 Euro per kilo).
The domestic production concentrates mainly in Sicily, around Catania and Palermo, but also in Puglia and Calabria. The country competes with Spain for the position of largest producer in Europe.
Netherlands: South Africa finished; large share of small sizes expected from Florida
The South African grapefruit season has already come to an end. Currently, Turkey and Israel are on the market, and this Mediterranean supply will later be expanded with the Spanish production. Mexico is also on the market, but some importers state they prefer making the leap to Florida, because its quality is still of a different order. The price of the last South African grapefruit amounts to around 12-14 Euro. For products from Israel and Turkey, current prices stand at 13-14 Euro and Florida is expected to start in mid-November with a price ranging between 20 and 24 Euro.
Total Produce, one of the larger market players in Florida's grapefruit sector, reports that exports to Europe have decreased dramatically over the years. After a hot dry summer, Florida already expected a lot of small fruit, but hurricane Matthew hit the plantations last week, causing most large fruits to fall first from the trees, and this will further increase the share of small calibres. Preliminary estimates predict a 15% reduction in the supply as a result of the hurricane's impact, but it is still too early to be sure at this stage. In the period before the hurricane, there had been a lot of rain in Florida.
Importers point out that the consumption of grapefruit has remained fairly stable over the years. It is, however, mostly consumed by senior citizens, and according to traders, it is still a tough challenge to inform consumers about the potential uses for this unique citrus fruit. Last year, a start was made in this direction at the Market Hall, with Florida grapefruit presented as a unique tropical citrus fruit compared to the Mediterranean product.
Belgium prefers Florida grapefruit
An importer reported to be busy with the preparations for the Florida season. The campaign normally starts in early November, but this year, because of the bad weather in the US, the first batches are expected in mid-November. The importer prefers these American grapefruits over those from other countries. Grapefruit from Spain or South Africa is of lower quality, according to this importer. Moreover, the prices are not as attractive. Belgian consumers are willing to pay more for Florida grapefruits. As long as the demand in Europe remains high, there will be sufficient volume. Otherwise, the volume drops and prices rise even further.
China grows mainly pomelos
The Chinese import mainly from South Africa and Australia. Besides these, there is also some supply from Israel, Egypt, Argentina, Peru and Morocco. The start of the South African season in April was slow. The volume was big, but the small demand resulted in low margins. At the lowest point, the price dropped from 150 yuan (20 Euro) to 130 yuan for 15 kilos. In July, the market recovered a little and prices rose to 190 yuan per box. Domestic production is limited and the country grows mostly pomelos.
Every week, FreshPlaza and AGF.nl publish an overview of the market situation of a product in a global context. With these articles we aim to provide a view of a global market shrinking due to globalisation. Next week, cucumbers will be on the spotlight.