In August, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the initial forecast for the 2016 U.S. apple crop at 10.4 billion pounds, up 4 percent from the previous year and the fourth largest since 2000, if realized. This increase signals above-average supplies will be moving to markets during the 2016/17 marketing season, likely putting downward pressure on U.S. apple prices. However, lack of competing storage supplies from the previous harvest and strong end-of-season prices should aid early prices in 2016/17.
NASS reported that forecasted declines in the top 3 States will push U.S. pear production in 2016 down 5 percent from a year ago to 1.56 billion pounds, potentially the lowest in over two decades. Overall production declines of 2-4 percent are expected in Washington State, Oregon, and California, mostly due to fewer bearing acres. The smaller U.S. crop will likely reduce fresh-market pear output in 2016/17. This lower output, along with generally good fruit quality, should help strengthen fresh-pear grower prices for the season. However, the anticipated larger U.S. apple crop may provide some offsetting price impacts.
U.S. grape production is forecast at 15.6 billion pounds in 2016, up 2 percent from a year ago. Despite persistent drought conditions, production in California is forecast fairly flat as increases to the wine-type and table-type grape crops are offset by the smaller raisin-type crop. Combined production elsewhere is forecast up 11 percent due to increases in other key States. Harvest in California’s San Joaquin Valley is in full progress. Despite the larger table grape crop, lower shipments thus far have resulted in higher fresh grape grower prices.
The NASS August forecast for U.S. cranberry production in 2016 is at 859 million pounds, up less than 1 percent from a year ago, but 3 percent above the previous 5-year average. While production is expected to remain high, continued positive demand during the 2015/16 marketing year should again prevent a significant buildup in inventories, likely mitigating any downward push on grower prices during the 2016/17 marketing year.
California’s almond and walnut crops are forecast to reach record highs for the 2016/17 season. Unlike other recent years, grower prices for these nuts fell sharply in 2015/16 amid near-to-record-high production.
