The Spanish citrus sector is currently involved in its usual speculations about what the 2016/17 campaign will bring. There is talk about the differences in the flowering and fruit setting, depending on the areas and varieties; about the impact of drought, the restrictions on watering, but above all, and linked in part to all of this, about the extent of the "porga" in May and June - (the natural physiological fruit drop that takes place at this time) and also the lack of calibre of some mandarins.
For the Citrus Management Committee (CGC), the union representing private exporters, the debate boils down to something much simpler: "After a campaign with an exceptionally low production due to the heat waves of May 2015, we face a more normal one, with surely higher figures than in the previous season, but which will not entail an excess in supply and, in fact, will make it easier to meet demand, with a fruit of the highest quality, but perhaps somewhat smaller."
In recent days, various agricultural organisations have predicted severe shortfalls caused by the lack of irrigation and rainfall. "To prevent an excessive "porga", it is essential for the land to retain a certain degree of humidity, and it is true that this year there have been some serious problems with drought, which worsened due to the lack of rainfall during a key period," explained sources from the CGC, who state that the problem of fruit drop has mainly affected the most common clementine variety, the Nules.
As a result of the above, according to estimates by the partners of the committee, "we have also observed a deficit in the calibres, especially in the earliest mandarins, which could also lead to a lower harvest volume, but also to a better balance between sweetness and acidity, as well as juice content." Production forecasts will be made in the first place by the Council of Agriculture of Valencia and then by its counterparts in other producing regions (Andalusia and Murcia). When it comes to the losses, the CGC has warned that "despite the figures that may be published now, these will have to be revised months later, because the impact on the harvest will only become clearer later."
No new plantings
In any case, the CGC has predicted that, in the short and medium term, "unless there are extraordinary and unforeseeable circumstances (frost, hail, extreme drought or abnormal and continued west winds as in 2015), the production this campaign and in the following years will not be excessive and we could be talking about a certain stability and moderation in the harvest." According to the annual campaign analyses published by the CGC, three of the last five citrus campaigns (2011/12, 2013/14 and 2014/15) yielded a total citrus production (mandarins, oranges, lemons and grapefruits) of between 7 and 7.5 million tonnes. "There will be fluctuations, but the total should stay between 6 and 7 million tonnes and it will be hard for the threshold of 7 million tonnes in the whole country or that of 4 million tonnes in Valencia to be exceeded," stated sources from the CGC.
The prediction of the association representing the private trade, which channels around 70% of Spanish citrus exports, are based not on specific findings, but in the few statistical objective data that they have at their disposal: the sale of citrus seedlings and the figures that the Ministry of Agriculture give, regarding the development of the citrus acreage. And in both cases it is obvious that there has been a clear downward trend.
The Spanish citrus industry has gone from the boom of new plantations (mainly in Andalusia) in the decades between the 95/96 and 2005/06 campaigns, in which annual sales of seedlings oscillated between 6 and 7.8 million a year, to quite a different situation for eight consecutive years, with sales ranging between 3 and 4.3 million seedlings (3.5 million on average).
"The sale of seedlings, which is usually a good indicator of citrus expansion, has fallen by half, and such a figure can hardly ensure the replacement of the oldest fruit trees, which are expected to enter into a spiral of instability, as the increases have for a long time, not depended on the new young plantations entering the market, but on the increases in yields as a result of the improvement of farms," explained sources from the CGC.
Abandonment
To this indicator we should add a second, which only confirms the above conclusion. The citrus acreage has been considerably reduced over the last five years, from 315,000 hectares in 2010 (178,000 in Valencia) to 299,000 in 2015 (162,000 hectares in Valencia).
To this we should also add that many agricultural areas that were traditionally devoted to citrus have converted to other crops, such as kakis, pomegranates or almonds.
Source: Diario Levante
