Given the exponential growth that Jalisco's avocado production could register after the opening of the US market to the fruit grown in this state, the Agricultural Council of Jalisco (CAJ, for its acronym in Spanish) warned about the possibility of overproduction and falling prices.
According to the projections made by the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA), Jalisco's avocado production will grow by up to 40,000 tons per year because of the opening of the US market for avocado exports from that state, which was announced last May.
The head of the Ministry of Rural Development (Seder) in the state, Hector Gutierrez Padilla, stated that avocado producers from the stated would double their production next year.
"Right now we're in the middle of the year but we will export a total of 80,000 tons this year," the official said.
In view of this, the president of the CAJ, Jacobo Cabrera, warned that there could be an overproduction and, consequently, a collapse in prices; just as it previously happened with the chia and the agave.
"Everybody is going to start planting avocados, even though they don't have a market," said the president of the CAJ, Jacobo Cabrera Palos.
The businessman stressed the importance of creating a national regulatory agency that can regulate production to supply the domestic and international markets.
Low production and high prices
While the Agricultural Council of Jalisco is warning about a possible collapse in prices if there is an increase in crops, prices have soared and, according to the head of Seder, will remain high for at least two months because of the current low production.
"Like all the production processes of living beings, the avocado has moments where there is an excess of production and moments when the production is low. We are entering the stage where production goes down and prices go up. Things will normalize in some three months, when the plant starts producing again," said Padilla.
While Padilla said that an increase in exports wouldn't increase the products price, Ignacio Gomez, the head of the Association of Producers and Exporters of Avocado Jalisco (Apeajal), stated that an increase in foreign sales was a factor that would impact prices, because there would be less products available.
"In 2014, Jalisco exported 27,000 tons of avocado. Then, in 2015, it exported 40,000 tons; this increase tends to have an impact on prices," the leader of the avocado exporters said.
Source: El Economista