AILIMPO's first lemon harvest estimate (volume) for the 2015/2016 campaign points to a production in Spain amounting to 850,400 tonnes, a figure 23% below that of the previous season, when a record production (1,100,000 tonnes) was obtained. This lower harvest volume is the result of adverse weather conditions during the flowering and setting stages, due to which the number of fruits per tree has been reduced. It is therefore a temporary and extraordinary reduction in the harvest, as the area planted remains unchanged.
In the case of Fino/Primofiori lemons, a 17% drop is expected, with a moderate decline in the first half of the campaign and a more considerable one in the second half.
A greater drop, initially estimated at around 38%, is expected for Verna lemons, although this forecast should be updated in January depending on rains, development of the calibres, etc.
These are harvest prospects that AILIMPO considers "normal in terms of tonnage, given that they point to almost identical volumes to the average of the last seven campaigns."
As in previous campaigns, it is expected that the lemon production will be absorbed by the fresh market, both for export and domestic consumption, and by the processing industry for the production of juice and essential oils, with a right balance between supply and demand in both markets.
Start of the campaign
It will be desirable for the Spanish lemon campaign to kick off and develop gradually from late September, as this year's campaign in the Southern Hemisphere (Argentina, Uruguay and South Africa) will finish later; consequently, the change of origin in the European market should take place in late September/early October. Furthermore, although their impact on the EU market is limited, it will be necessary to compete with Turkish lemons.