According to the Global Atmospheric Circulation Models (GCM), major geographical areas and sectors of the national economy will be adversely affected by climate change, agriculture and forestry being the most vulnerable, said regional secretary of Agriculture, José Manuel Rebolledo.
In that sense, he said that this creates pressures of varied nature, such as changes in the value and use of soils, adaptation or changes of territorial planning, analysis and rearrangements of priorities to support producers, among others. "In addition to the above there are two additional challenges, first, that agriculture must compete strongly with other sectors of economic activity for soil and water resources and, secondly, that the uncertain climate change scenario does not change the obligation that production systems have to be cost-effective, and environmentally and socially acceptable."
Regarding yields, Rebolledo cited a paper by INIA, the University of Concepción and Agrimed, from the University of Chile, called, "Study on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in agriculture and forestry in Chile," from 2009, which established that due to changes in temperatures and the availability of water, crop behaviour would be variable, depending on the crops' needs.
"Regarding the productivity of the agro-climatic zone in the South-Central foothills, it is worth noting that there will be an increase in performance for corn and potatoes, but to do so, they should push their planting season forward. Meanwhile, wheat productivity will remain stable irrigation and rainfed wheat will increase its yield potential by about 20%, but it must be changed to Winter varieties. "
The study also says that, unlike the irrigated valley centre, there is no general trend in future productivity change in the fruit crops of this area. There will, however, be a raise in yields by 2020 (according to some models), which is attenuated in a scenario proposed for 2040, but always exceeding current yields.
In the case of blueberries, there is a moderate decline in performance expected for the year 2040. Something similar would happen with the cherries, raspberries and apples, although the magnitudes of the changes differ. Plums, in turn, would increase productivity, like table grapes, which would create a major challenge for the industry, given its low current relevance in this area. Water requirements of all fruit species of interest will increase sharply in the future, independent of the fruit's yield increase or decrease.
Source: Diarioladiscusion.cl