Mexico is expecting an earlier-than-usual start to its grape season in Guaymas, Hermosillo, and Caborca, driven by warmer temperatures.
"Guaymas and Hermosillo are running 10–14 days early, depending on the specific early variety," says Stephen Harmer of Grapeman Farms. "Some harvesting will begin around week 18," he notes, compared to the typical start window of weeks 19–20.
Historically, an early start has been associated with lighter yields in traditional varieties such as Flames and Early Sweets.
"That's shifted somewhat in recent years as newer varieties have come into production," Harmer explains. "We're seeing mid- to late-season varieties performing better from a yield perspective than early-season grapes. Overall, crops appear more normalized, particularly for varieties like Sweet Globe and Sweet Celebration."
© Grapeman Farms
Production in Caborca
In Caborca, the season is not as advanced as in Guaymas and Hermosillo, although some growers are reportedly beginning Flame harvests as early as the first week of May—earlier than normal.
"On average, Caborca is also running about 10 to 14 days early, though the trend is more isolated compared to Guaymas and Hermosillo," Harmer adds.
Caborca is also showing relatively stronger yields. "It's still not a large crop, but conditions look more promising than in Guaymas and Hermosillo," he says. Mid-season green varieties across both regions are showing strong quality and yield potential, while red varieties may see tighter supply overall.
Meanwhile, production has already begun in Jalisco, Mexico, although the region accounts for only about 15–20 percent of the country's total grape crop.
Chile-to-Mexico transition challenges
One of the key challenges this season is the transition from Chile's table grape crop to Mexico's. Chile was already experiencing lighter volumes and arrivals in April, and significant rainfall in key growing areas—including Region VI and the Metropolitan Region—impacted fruit that was ready for harvest.
© Grapeman Farms
"That created a supply gap as Chile winds down and Mexico ramps up," says Harmer. "Although Mexico's early start will create some overlap, it likely won't be enough volume to fully meet demand."
As a result, the market has tightened. "We've seen prices increase, programs struggling to stay covered, and overall, it's made for a more challenging April than usual," he adds.
Strong market expected early
These dynamics are setting the stage for a strong start to the Mexican market—something the industry has become accustomed to in recent years.
"Right now, Chilean pricing is in the low $30s for reds and high $30s for greens," Harmer says. "As we transition into Mexico, those prices will continue to rise. In the first one to two weeks of the Mexican season, both red and green grapes could exceed $40 per box. How high prices go remains to be seen."
However, the stronger pricing environment is expected to be short-lived. Mexico's Sonoran is a relatively short season that typically sees 20-24 million cases shipped over an eight- to 10-week period, compared to California's six-month program.
"As more fruit enters the pipeline and builds in cold storage, the market will begin to stabilize," Harmer notes. "Overall, we're expecting a fairly steady season once things get underway."
For more information:
Stephen Harmer
Grapeman Farms
Tel: +1 (661) 392-1719
https://grapeman.com/
