The Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics indicates that increased El Niño intensity is expected to affect Brazilian horticulture in 2026, requiring higher levels of technical planning, regional climate analysis, and cost management.
Projections point to higher average temperatures throughout the year and changes in rainfall patterns from winter onwards, with varying effects across regions. Producers may face increased phytosanitary pressure, faster crop cycles, and quality issues, particularly under conditions of excess moisture. In regions with lower water availability, irrigation costs and feasibility are expected to become key factors in maintaining production.
Recent experience shows that productivity gains may not offset losses linked to increased supply, reduced quality, and higher production costs. These factors have affected profitability, as observed during 2025.
Prevention and planning are identified as the main approaches under these conditions. Measures include continuous climate monitoring, more precise crop management, staggered planting schedules, and structured risk assessment to support production, quality, and financial outcomes.
Researchers note that impacts vary depending on crop, region, and production system, with no uniform effect across fruit and vegetable categories.
Source: Brasil61 / Abrafrutas
