The California Department of Food and Agriculture, in cooperation with the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, has forecast the 2025-26 Valencia orange crop in the United States at 17.0 million cartons.
The March forecast is based on results from the 2025-26 Valencia Orange Objective Measurement Survey, conducted from January 10 to February 10, 2026. The estimate incorporates data on fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage, and oranges per carton.
Survey data show an average fruit set per tree of 657, up 19 per cent from the previous year and 18 per cent above the five-year average of 557. The average fruit diameter as of March 1 measured 2.555 inches, an increase of 7 per cent year-on-year and 5 per cent above the five-year average of 2.445 inches.
The survey sample included 330 groves, with 313 utilised in the analysis. These groves were located across key producing counties, including Tulare, Kern, San Diego, and Ventura. Two trees per grove were selected, with branch-level measurements used to estimate total fruit counts per tree through probability-based methods.
In the final stage of the survey, fruit diameter measurements were collected from selected groves to calculate average sizing across production areas.
Statewide data indicate bearing acreage at 24,500 acres, with an average of 124 trees per acre. Historical data show variability in production, with the 2025-26 forecast positioned above the 2024-25 utilised production of 14.6 million cartons.
The survey, funded by the California citrus industry, supports crop estimation models and provides early-season production indicators for the Valencia orange segment.
© CDFAFor more information:
CDFA
Tel: +1 530 885 1894
Email: [email protected]
www.ccqc.org
