Global air cargo started 2026 with increased volumes, although developments in the Middle East are affecting operations and pricing.
According to the International Air Transport Association, cargo volumes rose by 5.6 per cent year-on-year in January, with international routes up 7.2 per cent. Capacity increased by 3.6 per cent to 49.7 billion cargo tonne-kilometres, the highest level recorded for January. All regions recorded capacity growth except North America, where supply declined by 0.2 per cent.
Tonnage declined in mid-February due to Lunar New Year holidays in China and parts of Asia. WorldACD data shows chargeable weight fell by around 20 per cent during this period, although February overall still recorded a 7 per cent increase. Asia-Pacific volumes rose by 14 per cent, while Europe declined by 3 per cent.
The conflict in the Middle East has introduced operational constraints. Several airports in the region, including Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, have been affected. Airline capacity has been reduced, with WorldACD estimating that almost half of the capacity originating in the Middle East and South Asia was grounded. Carriers have suspended flights to the region and stopped accepting bookings.
Flows between Asia and Europe have been adjusted, with carriers increasing direct capacity between China or Hong Kong and Europe by 26 per cent, and by 14 per cent via alternative routes outside the Gulf.
Disruptions to maritime transport are also influencing air cargo. Reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is affecting global shipping, leading to potential modal shifts. According to Kuehne+Nagel, some cargo may shift from sea to air to avoid delays.
Fuel prices are also affecting operations. Aviation fuel prices started the year at US$90.3, down 6.5 per cent year-on-year, contributing to lower average unit revenues in January. However, the conflict has led to higher freight rates. Data from the Freightos Air Index shows that rates between South Asia and North America and Europe increased by around 50 per cent, reaching approximately US$6.00/kg and US$4.00/kg. Rates between Southeast Asia and Europe rose by 20 per cent to above US$4.00/kg, while China to U.S. rates increased by 20 per cent to above US$7.00/kg.
Trade policy developments are also influencing flows. The U.S. Supreme Court partially invalidated tariffs introduced in 2025, while new duties have been introduced under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. These changes are affecting sourcing strategies and trade patterns.
E-commerce remains a driver of air cargo demand, although regulatory changes are affecting flows. The removal of duty-free thresholds in the U.S. and planned measures in the EU are leading to adjustments in supply chains.
Air cargo continues to respond to changes in demand, capacity, and trade policy, with operators adjusting routing and pricing in response to current conditions.
Source: Upply
