In issue 755 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, a network stress test was conducted on the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28. The objective was to quantify the amount of deep-sea vessel capacity scheduled to leave the Persian Gulf, excluding local feeder vessels that were not intended to depart the region.
To calculate the potentially trapped capacity, carriers' published schedules were analyzed using two scenarios. Under the Baseline Scenario, which assumes vessels operated strictly according to their published schedules with no delays, a minimum of 156,074 TEU of deep-sea capacity is potentially restricted.
© Sea-Intelligence
When historical vessel delay buffers were applied to reflect realistic operational conditions, the restricted capacity under the Adjusted Scenario increased to 204,159 TEU. The difference between the two scenarios indicates that an additional 48,085 TEU could become trapped due to vessels operating behind schedule. This illustrates how existing network inefficiencies can compound the effects of geopolitical disruptions.
A sustained closure would also trigger secondary spillover effects across the broader deep-sea network. Vessels currently en route to the Persian Gulf would likely abort their rotations, leading to cargo displacement at alternative transshipment hubs outside the chokepoint, including Salalah, Colombo, and Singapore.
Such diversions could increase yard density at these hubs, reducing terminal productivity and creating berthing delays for mainline vessels operating on unrelated trade lanes.
In addition, the Persian Gulf functions as a net-import region. Deep-sea services typically load empty containers there for repositioning back to Asian manufacturing hubs. If more than 200,000 TEU of capacity becomes trapped, Asian export hubs could face shortages of empty containers, potentially affecting export flows in the Far East.
For more information:
Alan Murphy
Sea-Intelligence
Email: [email protected], am@sea‑intelligence.com, [email protected]
www.sea-intelligence.com
