Traffic through Egypt's Suez Canal has not returned to pre-crisis levels, despite a halt in attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. According to BIMCO, canal traffic in the first week of 2026 remained 60% below the same week in 2023, before ships began rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope.
"100 days ago, on 29 September, the Minervagracht was to become the last ship to be attacked by the Houthis, at least for now. Forty-three days later, the Houthis declared an end to their attacks on ships. Despite this, traffic through the Suez Canal has not significantly increased and in the first week of 2026 remained 60% below the corresponding week in 2023, before ships started diverting around the Cape of Good Hope," says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
Lloyd's List reports that ships have been attacked or hijacked 99 times since November 2023. While 15 ships were attacked in November and December 2023, substantial declines in Suez Canal transits only began in January 2024. Since then, quarterly deadweight tonnage capacity passing through the canal has been 51% to 64% lower than in 2023.
"During 2025, Suez Canal DWT transits have been 57-64% lower than in 2023. In the fourth quarter, transits by bulkers, container ships, crude and product tankers were respectively 55%, 86%, 32% and 19% lower than in 2023," Rasmussen explains.
Throughout 2025, lower transit levels were largely consistent across shipping segments. An exception was product tankers, which increasingly used the Suez Canal due to higher freight rate premiums. As a result, product tanker transits in the fourth quarter of 2025 were 19% below 2023 levels, compared with a 45% reduction during 2024.
Container shipping has largely avoided the canal since the attacks began. However, CMA CGM has announced that its MEDEX and INDAMEX services will resume Suez Canal routes in January 2026. In addition, on 19 December 2025, the Maersk Sebarok became the first Maersk vessel to transit the canal since early 2024. Maersk has indicated that "assuming that security thresholds continue to be met, we are considering continuing our stepwise approach towards gradually resuming navigation along the East-West corridor via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea."
Lower war risk insurance premiums may support a gradual return to the route. In early December, S&P Global reported that premiums had declined to 0.2% of hull value, down from 0.5% prior to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.
"A normalisation of ship transits now appears more likely than at any point during the last two years, but it remains unknown if, or how fast, this may happen," Rasmussen concludes.
Source: Container News
