Multiple U.S. crop sectors are entering 2026 with mixed profitability and varied market pressures, according to the latest industry outlook. Almonds, apples, lemons, oranges, pistachios, and potatoes each face different demand trends, crop size dynamics, and pricing conditions that will shape grower margins over the next 12 months.
Almond growers are reporting slightly profitable conditions, with a neutral outlook for 2026. A smaller than expected 2025 crop and steady demand are supporting current prices.
Apple producers remain unprofitable, with a neutral outlook. A large 2025 crop with variable quality is expected to continue pressuring prices. Apple packers, however, are profitable. Strong 2024 and 2025 crops and firm consumer demand are expected to sustain packer margins.
Lemon growers are at breakeven levels and anticipate continued pressure through 2026. Weak demand and softer pricing are expected to limit improvement in margins.
Orange growers report slightly profitable conditions. Early indications suggest that the navel crop has good quality and a larger size profile, aligning with market needs and offering some price support through the coming year.
Pistachios remain one of the stronger-performing sectors, with growers reporting profitable conditions and a neutral outlook. Demand continues to be firm, and the 2025 crop has come in smaller than early estimates, which has supported upward movement in prices.
Potatoes show a split picture depending on the market channel. Contracted potatoes remain slightly profitable, supported by stable processor agreements and purchases of overages at US$2 to US$3 per hundredweight. Margins, however, remain thin. Uncontracted potato growers remain slightly unprofitable, with a bearish outlook. Oversupply continues to weigh heavily on the market, leaving many growers below breakeven despite strong yields and quality.
Across these categories, the outlook reflects a combination of supply-driven price impacts, shifting domestic demand, and increasing sensitivity to quality variation. For apples and lemons, weak pricing remains a central concern, while nuts and citrus show more stable demand profiles. Potatoes continue to demonstrate the largest divergence between contracted and open-market returns.
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