Rabobank's Agri Commodity Outlook 2026 reports that geopolitics is increasingly shaping global agricultural trade, influencing prices, planted area, and export flows. The report describes a world divided between United States and China spheres of influence, with agricultural commodities becoming "pawns on a geopolitical chessboard," according to Rabobank head of agri commodity markets research, Carlos Mera.
Policy-driven production trends
Rabobank notes a shift from tariff disputes to subsidy-led support. Governments in the U.S., Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, and Russia have expanded agricultural support through direct payments, minimum price guarantees, and biofuel mandates. This support is muting supply reactions to low prices and is expected to maintain high planted areas into 2026.
RaboResearch Australia and New Zealand general manager Stefan Vogel said the planted area in key exporting regions is expected to remain high due to government protection. Australian plantings will depend on rainfall, with a likely La Niña expected to support the 2026 season.
Diverging regional markets
Rabobank expects wider price gaps between major producing regions as tariffs and trade barriers continue. Previous U.S.–China trade tensions created strong price differences between origins, a pattern Rabobank expects to see again in 2026. The U.S. is also reviewing tariffs on products it does not produce, which could ease import costs.
Economic environment
Rabobank forecasts global GDP growth at 2.9 per cent in 2025, easing to 2.7 per cent in 2026 as temporary factors such as early export front-loading fade. Australia's GDP is expected to grow just under two per cent in both years.
Outlook
Rabobank expects ongoing trade disruptions, fluctuating regional prices, and continued government intervention. Mera notes the sector is entering the "middle game" of geopolitical restructuring, with uncertainty likely to remain a defining feature of global agriculture.
For more information:
Denise Shaw
Rabobank
Tel: +61 (0) 2 8115 2744
Email: [email protected]
www.rabobank.com.au
