The papaya supply outlook in Brazil's main producing regions may vary considerably by the end of 2025. According to collaborators consulted by Hortifrúti/Cepea, orchards in the north of Espírito Santo are expected to record lower fruit availability over the next two months due to reduced yields and phytosanitary problems.
Reports indicate that spider mite infestations have caused defoliation in papaya plants, reducing overall fruit quality. The loss of foliage has exposed fruits directly to sunlight and high temperatures, increasing the occurrence of physiological spots. With both lower supply and quality concerns, prices in Espírito Santo may decline in the short term.
In contrast, production areas in the west of Bahia and the north of Minas Gerais have not been as affected by pest and disease issues. These regions are expected to offer higher-quality fruit in the coming months. As a result, prices in these regions could remain more attractive compared to Espírito Santo.
During the week of October 20–24, average prices in western Bahia and northern Minas Gerais were reported to be around 50% higher than in northern Espírito Santo, reflecting stronger returns for growers in these areas.
The difference in supply and quality across states is likely to influence market dynamics through the end of the year, as growers in less-affected regions continue to benefit from stable conditions and stronger prices, while Espírito Santo producers manage reduced yields and quality-related challenges.
Source: HF Brasil
