California almond growers are challenging the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) 2025 forecast of a 3-billion-pound crop, arguing that the estimate does not reflect on-the-ground conditions. The prediction, released in the July 10 Objective Measurement Report, led to an immediate 50-cent drop in almond prices, which have only partially recovered.
According to Alexi Rodriguez, president and CEO of the Almond Alliance, "When the Objective Estimate was released in July, the Almond Alliance raised concerns with NASS about confusion in the report, especially around how abandoned acreage was accounted for." The group cited uncertainty over abandoned orchards, estimated at about 12,000 hectares (30,000 acres). These areas are difficult to track because growers often do not report when they stop maintaining orchards.
Rodriguez noted that removing an orchard can cost around US$3,000 per hectare, a cost that varies depending on soil and location. Many farmers, she said, were forced into abandoning orchards due to a "perfect storm" of post-pandemic logistics disruptions, low grower returns, and rising input and labor costs.
On September 15, NASS issued a clarification but did not revise the crop forecast. The agency stated: "The forecast is based on 1.39 million bearing acres, which always includes distressed acres and orchards receiving limited-to-no maintenance, unless confirmed abandoned by the operator. All bearing acres are eligible to be sampled for the objective measurement survey and therefore represented in the yield modeling and forecast."
The Almond Alliance welcomed the clarification but said it came later than hoped, adding that future collaboration with NASS would aim to improve communication and data transparency.
Satellite data from Land IQ, a California-based mapping firm, placed total almond bearing acreage at 562,000 hectares (1,389,096 acres) in April, closely aligning with the NASS figure. Land IQ also estimated about 21,000 hectares (51,805 acres) of almond removals.
However, growers across California report lower yields than in previous seasons. Stanislaus County producer Donny Hicks said his Independence and Shasta varieties were well below average. A report by RPAC Almonds noted that "the crop is shaping up smaller and more inconsistent than last year, with weather-driven challenges across growing regions." The best yields were reported in Kern County, while Fresno and Madera counties recorded lighter crops.
Meridian Growers, representing producers in California and Arizona, also confirmed that many growers reported smaller kernels and reduced yields, adding further skepticism to the NASS forecast.
Source: FarmProgress
