With the orange harvest now underway in Brazil, the industry anticipates an increase in crop size. In May, Fundecitrus projected 314.6 million boxes for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt for the 2025/26 season, marking a 36.27% y-o-y increase, aligning with the average of the past decade.
Fundecitrus attributes this to a higher number of fruits per tree, improved grove management, and more productive trees. The majority of the crop is expected with the second bloom, usually in November, potentially increasing market volumes later this year.
© Mintec/ExpanaOrange juice prices, which peaked in August 2024, have declined since, with the EBP dropping to $4,000/mt as of June 30, 2025. The demand for juice had declined due to the high prices, impacting global demand and resulting in price drops.
Despite price drops, market demand remains low. Increased production could stabilize prices at a lower level, as Brazil is likely to crush substantial quantities to build stock. Procurement and pricing by major buyers remain a key consideration.
Source: Mintec/Expana
