The citrus belt of São Paulo and Minas Gerais is facing challenges that are expected to impact orange production. The Citrus Defense Fund (Fundecitrus) has released its first estimate for the 2024/25 harvest, projecting a harvest of 232.38 million boxes, each weighing 40.8 kilos. This forecast, if realized, would represent a 24.3% decrease from the 2023/24 season, marking the lowest output in the last decade. Juliano Ayres, general manager of Fundecitrus, highlighted concerns about rainfall, noting, "The forecast indicates that the volume of rainfall in the next six months will be 30% to 40% of the need." This shortfall in precipitation is expected to diminish tree reserves and fruit potential, contributing to the projected decline in production.
Despite these challenges, the area dedicated to orange orchards is anticipated to remain stable at 164.8 million hectares, with a 5% increase in the number of trees in production to 35 million. However, only 36% of the citrus belt is irrigated, which, coupled with drought conditions, is likely to reduce plant nutrition and yield fewer fruits per tree, albeit of a greater weight. The expected rate of fruit drop per tree is 18.5%, slightly lower than the previous season's rate of 19%, due in part to the accelerated ripening and harvesting of oranges caused by dry weather.
The ongoing battle against citrus greening in São Paulo and Minas Gerais remains critical, with management techniques being essential in the interim. Ibiapaba Netto, executive director of CitrusBR, remarked on the supply challenges facing the industry, noting that for the fifth consecutive cycle, supply is anticipated to fall short of demand. The last significant surplus that allowed for stock building occurred in the 2019/20 harvest, with subsequent weather events constraining production capacity.
Source: datamarnews.com