According to various sources, the fall in Russia’s GDP due to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 amounted to 3.4-4.5%. Many citizens of the aggressor country had to flee abroad, fearing mobilization into the army and/or political persecution for condemning the crimes of the Russian regime. Also, more than 100 000 Russian citizens have already died in Ukraine. This led to a drop in the incomes of the population, and to a decrease in the Russian population itself.
The double negative effect of the war could not but affect the international fruit and vegetable trade, because the Russian Federation remains one of the largest markets for vegetables and fruits globally. EastFruit experts analyzed the potential impact of economic factors on the supply of potatoes and vegetables from Egypt and on the Egyptian potato and vegetable business in general since Russia is the main market for potatoes and vegetables from Egypt.
To understand the segments of Egypt’s fruit and vegetable business most dependent on exports to Russia and the effect of the situation in Russia on the Egyptian vegetable and potato business, let’s look at the volume and structure of Russian imports of Egyptian vegetables and potatoes.
99% of Russian imports of Egyptian vegetables consist of 10 vegetables, and their structure at the end of 2021 (before the start of the full-scale war) was the following:
As can be seen from the table, more than half of Russian imports from Egypt are potatoes, which is typical for the past few seasons. The share of potatoes in the total volume of Russian vegetable imports from Egypt in 2017-2021 ranged from 51% to 75%.
As EastFruit experts have already noted, Russia remained the main market for potatoes exported from Egypt in the first three quarters of 2022. In addition, Egyptian exporters increased the supply of onions, carrots, and frozen vegetables there.
By the way, the share of Russia in the total volume of potato exports from Egypt in 2017-2021 ranged from 38% to 56%, except for 2019 and 2020.
For more information: east-fruit.com
