Specialist horticulture and viticulture weather forecaster Metris reports that Cyclone Vaianu is expected to impact growers across New Zealand.
In an update to growers, Metris indicated the system is a deep low-pressure system expected to move over the North Island, influenced by a high-pressure system off the east coast, a high-pressure system over Australia, and a south-westerly low-pressure system converging on the South Island's west coast. Modelling suggests the cyclone may affect areas including the Ruahine Ranges.
In the Bay of Plenty, wind conditions are forecast to build from Sunday morning, followed by strong gusts and rainfall. High winds in the Hicks Bay area present a risk to kiwifruit vines from Opotiki to Te Kaha. Rainfall at this stage of the season may affect avocado and kiwifruit dry matter, while wind remains a primary risk for orchard infrastructure.
In Waikato, blueberry harvesting is ongoing. Extended wet conditions may affect berries, while high winds may impact netting structures. Temperatures of around 20 degrees increase the risk of rot and pest activity. The system is expected to clear by Monday, with more settled conditions forecast for Tuesday.
Gisborne is forecast to experience wind gusts exceeding 100 km/h and rainfall ranging from 20 mm to 100 mm in elevated areas.
In Hawke's Bay, rainfall is expected to move in from the east, affecting the Waipawa and Waipukurau catchments, with over 130 mm forecast in the Ruahine Ranges. Rainfall on the Heretaunga Plains is forecast at around 40 mm between Saturday and Monday. Wind conditions are expected to shift direction rapidly, with gusts of 80 to 100 km/h and a transition from easterly to westerly flow. These conditions may affect apple orchards, particularly where fruit load remains high, and soils are saturated. The Tukituki catchment is identified as an area of risk.
In Wairarapa, Manawatu, and Wellington, grape production areas are forecast to receive rainfall from the south-east combined with wind conditions linked to moisture movement through the Cook Strait.
Marlborough is expected to experience wind from the south-east as the system tracks west of the country, while Nelson is forecast to receive limited rainfall of 10 to 20 mm as the system moves eastward.
Source: Hort News
