The first South African avocados arrived in Rotterdam two weeks ago. A small proportion of the country's avocados are traditionally traded in the Middle East, says Derek Donkin, CEO of Subtrop, the umbrella body that includes the avocado industry, representing over 95 of South Africa's commercial avocado growers.
The war in the Middle East has not, he says, had a drastic impact on South Africa's avocado exporters: their eyes are on Europe, where fruit from smaller Andean growers in Peru has arrived concurrent with South Africa's early shipments. "The major volumes from the larger producers in the coastal areas of Peru are yet to arrive. We're waiting for Peru's official estimate. The general information going around is that their crop will be larger than last year."
How Peru will split their crop between the United States and Europe is uncertain at this stage, but in Europe, the South Africans are expecting slightly more than last year. In 2025, Peru shipped 270,000 tonnes to Europe and the UK compared to South Africa's 76,000 tonnes.
© Carolize Jansen | FreshPlaza.com
Market access doesn't necessarily mean brisk trade
Despite gaining market access to Japan, no South African avocados were shipped there in 2025 due to the risks associated with the required cold treatment. "It is unlikely that significant volumes will be shipped to Japan in 2026 as the cold treatment remains a requirement."
Similarly, South African avocados have had access to India since 2024, but negligible volumes have been shipped due to the high import tariff of 30%.
The avocado export estimate is 21 million 4kg cartons. The flooding of January did not impact avocados, which are planted in higher-lying areas: in fact, months of cool, cloudy weather have been ideal for avocados, Donkin says.
Orchards relished the mild and moist conditions, and avocado packhouses have seen a higher percentage of larger-sized fruit running over the line. "There is currently a demand for larger fruit," he says, "so it's been positive from that perspective."
For more information:
Derek Donkin
Subtrop
Tel: +27 15 307 3676
Email: [email protected]
https://www.subtrop.co.za/
