Trade measures, geopolitical developments, and rising diesel costs are affecting fresh produce pricing in the U.S. market. Roma tomatoes are increasingly cited as an example of pressure within the supply chain, with retail prices around US$2.75 per pound nationally and approximately US$2.49 per pound in Los Angeles, compared to lower levels in previous years.
In July, the U.S. administration withdrew from the 2019 Tomato Suspension Agreement with Mexico and introduced duties of around 17 per cent on most fresh Mexican tomato imports. Imports from Mexico are valued at approximately US$3 billion annually and account for about two-thirds of U.S. fresh tomato consumption. Analysts indicate that these measures are contributing to higher retail prices.
"You can't rip out two-thirds of your tomato supply with a tariff and expect prices to hold steady."
Estimates suggest the duties could increase consumer tomato prices by around 7 per cent to 10 per cent. Industry-funded projections indicate potential increases of up to 52 per cent across affected Mexican varieties, including Roma tomatoes, if tariffs are fully applied. Mexico has also implemented minimum export prices, adding further cost layers across the supply chain.
Energy costs linked to the conflict in Iran are also affecting pricing. Diesel, used in transport and production, has risen to an average of just over US$5.64 per gallon nationally, with levels above US$7.50 per gallon in states such as California.
"Every truck moving Roma tomatoes from Mexican farms through Nogales or Laredo to your local supermarket is burning diesel that now costs dramatically more than it did before the war began."
Higher fuel costs are adding to existing pressures from tariffs, electricity, and labour. Economists indicate that businesses have limited capacity to absorb these increases, suggesting continued pressure on retail pricing if costs remain elevated.
Fertiliser costs are also linked to energy markets. Nitrogen-based fertilisers are derived from natural gas, and supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz account for around one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas flows. Disruptions may affect fertiliser pricing and future production cycles.
"You are paying for a tariff fight, a geopolitical war, and spiking diesel — all at once, all in your pasta sauce."
In response, some market participants are adjusting purchasing patterns. Canned and processed tomato products are often domestically produced or sourced under longer-term contracts, reducing short-term price volatility. Seasonal and local supply, particularly during California's peak field production period, may also offer alternatives. Other substitutes, including grape and cherry tomatoes, as well as processed formats, are also being considered.
Roma tomato pricing reflects broader interactions between trade policy, energy markets, and supply chain costs within the U.S. produce sector.
Source: Forbes
