The recent surge in violence across various regions of Mexico has raised social and economic concerns. Recently, multiple media reports have highlighted incidents such as road blockades, attacks on businesses, and security operations in states with prominent agricultural sectors, including avocado-producing regions.
Based on anonymous interviews, the perception of how the surge in violence affects avocado production and exports is currently mixed and cautious.
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A source from Mexico City reported that the atmosphere remains "fairly calm," although he noted potential challenges in states like Michoacán and certain parts of Jalisco, where most of the production is centered. The main issue is not product shortages but security on routes and stable communications. Sector technicians and staff have been advised to seek temporary shelter until road conditions return to normal, especially given recent reports of attacks and road blockades.
Another source called the events "unprecedented," emphasizing the extensive scale of federal operations. However, he believed that although the chaos was intense, it was probably temporary. In his opinion, despite the shocking images and reports, there will not be lasting changes in national avocado production or a significant impact on near-term prices.
The immediate impact is likely to be more about temporary logistical disruptions rather than a reduction in production. If road blockades continue or increase, they could cause delays in harvesting or exporting. Nonetheless, there has been no confirmation of widespread stoppages in orchards or packing plants so far.
A third testimony confirms that, in some areas, specific operations were temporarily halted for one day, including activities related to agricultural health. However, the next day, no additional incidents were reported, and activities resumed as normal.
Overall, the interviews suggest a period of uncertainty rather than an outright crisis. The avocado industry, a key part of Mexican agricultural exports, continues to monitor how events unfold. Currently, most sources agree that any effects are likely to be short-term and limited, provided security issues do not persist.
Meanwhile, producers, technicians, and logistics operators stay alert, focusing on security and regularly checking for any potential effects on routes, harvests, and international shipments.
