The global grape market is facing shifting supply dynamics, weather-related disruptions, and price pressure across key origins and destinations.
The Netherlands is dealing with heavy South African arrivals, with shipments to Europe up 27% up to week 7, while Indian exports are delayed with 1,200 containers shipped compared to 2,400 last year, and volumes reduced by 40–50%. Italy is fully dependent on imports from Peru and South Africa following the end of its domestic season, with wholesale prices in Rome reaching €4.70 to €5.00 per kg. In Belgium, sales are running smoothly with balanced supply, although Peruvian grapes at around €5 per kg are trading well above South African fruit at approximately €2 per kg.
Germany remains well supplied mainly from South Africa, with sufficient availability and mostly stable pricing. Spain is importing from Peru and South Africa, with delayed South African volumes arriving simultaneously and adding pressure to supply, while North America reports good overall availability, Peru shipping more than 4% more fruit to the U.S., and Chile forecasting 63.5 million cases, a 6.4% decline, amid softening prices and tariffs, including 30% on South African grapes and 10% on Chilean volumes.
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South Africa estimates a crop of 79.4 million 4.5 kg cartons, with 56 million cartons exported by week 7, up 9%, and harvesting running 10 to 14 days earlier in some cultivars, while domestic wholesale prices average R20, equivalent to €1 per kg. India's grape season has been impacted by unseasonal rains, cutting registrations by 28%, lowering yields to 15–20 bunches per plant, and shifting exports from Europe toward the Middle East. Chile projects 63.5 million boxes with 50%–60% shipped to the U.S., where a 10% tariff is reducing returns, and Peru closes its season at 84.2 million boxes, up approximately 3%, with December prices above €37 per box before easing. Brazil faced a 50% tariff in the U.S. and oversupply in Europe, where Rotterdam prices fell to €15–€17 per box compared with €20–€22 in 2023–2024, prompting a stronger focus on domestic sales and diversification.
The Netherlands: Indian grape volumes significantly down
The grape market is facing challenging conditions. "There is a very large supply of South African grapes. Overall exports are up 8–10% worldwide, while shipments to Europe have increased by 27% up to week 7. By week 5, almost 12 million cartons had been shipped for export, with Europe as the main destination, followed by the UK, Russia, and the Middle East," says a Dutch importer. "Unfortunately, congestion in South Africa has caused major delays. Many containers have been waiting on the quay for one to two weeks, leading to significant quality issues. In the coming weeks, large volumes of South African grapes will continue to be shipped, so a high number of containers are expected to arrive at least until week 12."
"The South African situation is working against the Indian season. Extended periods of heavy rain and delayed pruning have strongly affected output in several growing areas in Maharashtra. India experienced nearly six months of rainfall, delaying pruning and reducing volumes by 40–50%. In weeks 3 and 4, humid and foggy weather prevented harvesting due to low Brix levels. As a result, India's export figures are far behind schedule. Many vineyards will only be harvest-ready in the coming month, shifting arrivals in Europe and the UK further into spring. Up to the beginning of this week, only 1,200 containers have been exported, compared with 2,400 containers in the same period last year. This season is therefore not comparable to previous years."
"In addition, Indian growers are very cautious about exporting due to the current situation in Europe. Domestic demand is extremely strong, with local buyers paying around €1.50 per kg for seedless grapes. At the same time, European market prospects remain poor until at least week 12 because of the large volumes of South African grapes. Supply is high, quality issues are widespread, and prices are under pressure. A recovery is expected only from the second half of March. Normally, India competes on price with South Africa, but this year the situation is the opposite."
Italy: Imported grapes dominate wholesale markets
The Italian table grape season concluded in the first days of January with the later varieties. The market is now supplied exclusively with imported products.
In week 8 of 2026, wholesale markets recorded a clear predominance of non-EU imports, particularly from Peru and South Africa. Prices differed between markets. In Verona, South African black seedless grapes were quoted at €3.40 to €3.70 per kg. Peru supplied Red Globe at €2.80 to €3.60 per kg and Rosada seedless at €3.40 to €3.70 per kg. In Turin, only Peruvian grapes were available: seedless white varieties were priced at €4.30 to €4.50 per kg, while Red Globe in 4.5 kg packs ranged from €2.90 to €3.00 per kg, and the same variety in 8.2 kg packs from €3.20 to €3.40 per kg. In Rome, Peruvian products also prevailed, with seedless white grapes at €4.70 to €5.00 per kg. Red Globe was quoted at €4.70 to €5.00 per kg for 4.5 kg packs and €3.20 to €3.40 per kg for 8.2 kg packs.
According to YouGov data, 66% of Italian households purchase table grapes. Although the product is available year-round, the main season, with market penetration between 20% and 50%, runs from July to November, with September as the peak month. The category continues to broaden its customer base and shows increasing purchase frequency. Supermarkets account for over 45% of household purchases, followed by discount stores and, at a considerable distance, hypermarkets.
Belgium: Sales steady despite wide price gap between origins
The grape market is running smoothly, according to a Flemish importer. "A few weeks ago, things were a bit slower, mainly due to limited supplies of Autumncrisp from Peru. That started to have an impact. However, we now have sufficient stock again, including large, high-quality sizes, and sales are picking up. Demand is certainly there."
He notes clear price differences between origins. "If you compare the South African supply with that from Peru, South Africa is relatively cheaper. The recent arrivals highlight this. What we received from Peru this week is impressive in size, really large fruit. A two-euro coin looks small next to them. Similar to plums, but you pay for that. Prices are around €5 per kg. This shows that consumers are willing to pay for quality, even though there is a clear price difference compared to, for example, South Africa, where grapes sell for about €2 per kg."
"Supply and demand are well balanced. There is no shortage, but no surplus either. At the moment, it's essentially an ideal situation."
Germany: South African supply shapes market
Imports from South Africa dominated the market, supplemented by deliveries from Namibia and Peru. Availability was sufficient to meet current demand. Seedless varieties, mainly Crimson Seedless and Red Globe, were popular with customers, while seeded grapes and returns from food retailers tended to move more slowly. Prices in Berlin generally showed a downward trend, whereas in other markets they mostly remained at previous levels.
Spain: Delayed South African arrivals pressure market supply
Spain is currently importing grapes from Peru and South Africa. South African grapes arrived later due to bad weather at origin, and volumes are now arriving all at once, adding pressure to market supply. Spanish importers are generally satisfied with the quality of Peruvian grapes, as well as with South African fruit, except for some batches affected by heavy rains.
Demand is fairly good, showing an upward trend on the Spanish market, although it is not as high as last year, which marked a turning point in grape consumption in Spain. Grapes have been competing for shelf space with strawberries until severe storms hit Huelva, but this situation could now change as berry availability is limited.
Spanish importers will continue marketing Peruvian grapes for a few more weeks alongside South African volumes, after which they will switch to Chile.
North America: Peru slows as Chile increases shipments
Table grape supply in the U.S. remains good, with Peru and Chile both shipping fruit, although Peruvian loadings have declined over the past three weeks. As of last week, Peru had shipped more than 4% more fruit to the U.S., reflecting increased volumes through mid-February.
Chile is gaining momentum and is expected to ship 63.5 million cases this season, a 6.4% decline compared to last season. Harvest in northern Chile continues with a lighter and later crop. Grapes from the Aconcagua region are reaching full production but are also running behind schedule. Rancagua is forecast to produce a large crop.
South Africa, a smaller supplier to the U.S. market, is subject to a 30% import tariff.
Movement has been steady, with prices softening in recent weeks. Prices are expected to remain stable in the weeks ahead, although Chile still has a substantial volume left to ship. Market sellers are mindful of the impact of the 10% tariff on growers and are expected to resist further price reductions.
South Africa: Harvest ends earlier following high early-season temperatures
The national crop estimate stands at 79.4 million 4.5 kg cartons, with 56 million 4.5 kg cartons exported up to week 7, representing a 9% increase compared to the same period last year.
Three of the five production regions have completed their harvests and have generally met their regional estimates, while the Berg and Hex River regions are still harvesting.
"Warm temperatures early in the season have resulted in certain cultivars being harvested 10 to 14 days earlier than usual, and the industry now anticipates that this year's harvest will finish earlier than the previous season," the industry organisation states. In the Olifants River region (Clanwilliam/Trawal), the average daily maximum temperature in November was nearly 7 degrees Celsius higher than the 30-year average.
The opening of at least one new market, the Philippines, is regarded as positive, and a market development campaign is planned to coincide with the arrival of the first containers. The first consignment of grapes to South Korea is scheduled for the 2026/2027 season.
The development of a domestic grape season in China has reduced the competitive supply window for South Africa, although stakeholders note that this is not affecting South Africa alone. Competition in the global grape market is intensifying.
On the domestic wholesale market, the average price is R20, equivalent to €1 per kg. Volumes on the wholesale market are 17% higher than at the same time last year.
India: Unseasonal rains cut yields and vineyard registrations
Nashik's grape season has been affected by unseasonal rains, reducing vineyard registrations by 28% and lowering yields from 35–40 bunches per plant last year to 15–20 bunches per plant this season. Fewer than half of all vineyards currently meet export grade, pushing prices up 20–25% compared to last season and delaying shipments to Europe, which usually begin in late January, due to shortfalls in strict sugar standards.
Middle Eastern markets, which apply more flexible quality thresholds, are absorbing higher volumes. These markets traditionally account for around 20% of exports, alongside Southeast Asia, while Europe normally represents 60%. As Iran and other nearby origins face supply gaps, Indian exporters are stepping in to compete on price and availability in these destinations.
The pending India–EU Free Trade Agreement includes proposed duty reductions, currently between 10–14%, which are viewed positively by exporters seeking improved competitiveness for premium varieties such as Thompson Seedless and Sonaka. New weather-resilient varieties under trial aim to deliver more consistent quality, stronger disease resistance, and stable brix levels, supporting longer-term diversification, cost control, and farm resilience.
Chile: Volumes stable, margins under pressure
The 2025–2026 season is projected at 63.5 million boxes, with volumes similar to last year but tighter market conditions. The U.S. accounts for 50%–60% of shipments and continues to set the commercial pace. Premium green grapes clearly dominate, with four green varieties for every red. Prices are lower than last season, and the 10% tariff in the U.S. is reducing returns. However, improved coordination with Peru has helped avoid market disruptions caused by oversupply.
Peru: Moderate growth and steady price adjustments
The season closes at 84.2 million boxes, representing year-on-year growth of approximately 3%. In the U.S., which accounts for 64% of total volume, December prices exceeded €37 per box, followed by gradual declines of €2–€4 per week in January, remaining well above the sharp drops seen the previous year. Autumn Crisp and Sweet Globe are the leading varieties. Europe remains under pressure, while competition from China is increasing in Asian markets.
Brazil: Trade barriers and price pressure in Europe
The 2025 season was characterised by a 50% tariff in the U.S. and significant oversupply in Europe. In Rotterdam, prices fell to €15–€17 per box, compared to €20–€22 in 2023–2024. The loss of the U.S. market redirected volumes to Europe, placing additional pressure on prices. The focus shifted towards the domestic market and diversification into the UK and China, alongside varietal reconversion efforts.
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