The 2025/26 EU potato season is characterised by oversupply, placing pressure on market dynamics as participants look ahead to 2026/27. Planted area is emerging as a central factor in restoring supply and demand balance.
High production levels, a heavily contracted season, and increasing competition in export markets have reduced free-buy trade to low levels. With limited demand for spot purchasing, growers holding uncontracted stock face restricted sales channels.
Market sources do not anticipate near-term improvement. Some expect current conditions to remain in place until mid-year, while others state that the situation could persist "for a long time".
Industry participants indicate that a correction in planted area is required to prevent renewed oversupply in 2026/27. Following record acreage in 2025/26 across the EU-4, including France, the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium, the North-Western Potato Growers Association has advised growers to assess planting plans carefully.
Views differ on the scale of reduction required. According to a report by World Potato Markets, "A drop of 10% in the area and average yields would bring the market into balance, but we have never seen such a decline before." Other market voices suggest that a reduction of 15 to 20 per cent may be needed, though expectations are closer to 5 per cent.
At the same time, European producers are managing weaker demand for frozen fries from certain export destinations. Saudi Arabia has reduced imports from Belgium, while competitors such as India have expanded market share. Indian volumes to Saudi Arabia have increased, supported by lower pricing structures.
Market participants state that acreage decisions for the coming cycle will influence free-buy availability and overall supply levels. They add that reductions in contracted tonnage could increase free market exposure if planted area is not aligned with demand. According to sources, if acreage cuts are insufficient, "the market will be lost again next season."
Source: Potato News Today
