The third update of the 2025/26 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, released on February 10, 2026, by Fundecitrus in cooperation with a retired professor from FCAV/Unesp, estimates production at 292.60 million boxes of 40.8 kg. This represents a decline of 7% compared with the May forecast, equivalent to 22 million boxes fewer. Compared with the December projection of 294.81 million boxes, the current estimate is down 0.7%, a reduction of 2.21 million boxes.
The downward revision reflects smaller average fruit size in late varieties, including Valencia, Folha Murcha, and Natal. Approximately 25.73 million boxes are expected to be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
© Fundecitrus
Between May 2025 and January 2026, average accumulated rainfall across the citrus belt reached 862 millimeters, representing a 10% deficit compared with the 1991 to 2020 historical average, according to Climatempo Meteorologia. Southern sector regions, including Porto Ferreira and Limeira, recorded rainfall above the historical average, with increases of 15% and 4%, respectively. Northern regions showed the highest deficits, ranging from 26% to 32%. Other regions registered rainfall reductions between 4% and 14%.
Field monitoring indicates that 87% of the crop had been harvested by mid-January 2026. Average fruit weight was 153 grams per fruit, 1 gram below the previous forecast. The reduction is attributed to late varieties, which showed limited growth during the period.
Harvest progress for Valencia and Folha Murcha reached 75%, with an updated average fruit weight of 161 grams. The Natal variety reached a 77% harvest rate, with fruit weight estimated at 163 grams. Early varieties, Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi, as well as other early varieties, have completed harvest within projected weight ranges. The mid-season Pera variety reached 97% harvest, with fruit size meeting prior expectations.
The number of oranges required to fill a 40.8 kg box increased from 265 to 267 fruits on average. For Valencia and Folha Murcha, the count rose from 248 to 253 fruits per box, and for Natal from 248 to 250 fruits per box. Fruit size for other varieties remained stable.
The estimated premature fruit drop rate remains at 23.0%, the highest level recorded in 11 crop seasons, associated with increased greening severity. Fruit drop rates vary by variety, with higher levels recorded in regions where greening incidence is more prevalent.
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